Djurgardens IF 0-0 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 May 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 5W 2D 3L at Tele2 Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IFK Goteborg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 53% versus IFK Goteborg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 60% | IFK Goteborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.31 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.215 / defence 0.771 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.840 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.116. IFK Goteborg's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Djurgardens IF's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Djurgardens IF games / 37 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 48% | Draw 33% | IFK Goteborg 19%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.08 | Draw 3.03 | IFK Goteborg 5.26. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. This conflicts with form data: Djurgardens IF 70% | IFK Goteborg 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 48% | Draw 33% | IFK Goteborg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.31 / IFK Goteborg 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.215 / def 0.771 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.840 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.72
IFK Goteborg xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 23 May 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 0 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 48% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 19% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.22) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.84x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
48%
2.07
33%
3.03
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.03
0.72
IFK Goteborg xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
5%
19.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.72 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Djurgardens IF's recent record stands at 14W 6D 10L from 30 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 7W 13D 10L across 30 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Djurgardens IF by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Djurgardens IF have managed 7W 4D 4L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 4W 8D 3L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.17 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 7W 13D 10L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.67 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 6-0 on 4 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Djurgardens IF
3
Draws
2
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 5, IFK Goteborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 6-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 60%, IFK Goteborg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Djurgardens IF) and 47% (IFK Goteborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Djurgardens IF's games and 60% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 47% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Djurgardens IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF and IFK Goteborg finished level at 0-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.31 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.72 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.22 / defence 0.77 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.84 / defence 0.77, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 48% | Draw 33% | IFK Goteborg 19%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 60%, IFK Goteborg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.