Djurgardens IF 0-3 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to Tele2 Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Monday 18 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 7W 2D 1L at Tele2 Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Djurgardens IF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.70 for IF Elfsborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 48% versus IF Elfsborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 54% | IF Elfsborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.94 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.271 / defence 1.085 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.129 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.035. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Djurgardens IF games / 52 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 52% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 24%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | IF Elfsborg 4.17. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 60% | IF Elfsborg 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 52% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.94 / IF Elfsborg 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.271 / def 1.085 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.129 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.27
IF Elfsborg xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 3 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 52% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.27) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.13x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.14
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.21
1.27
IF Elfsborg xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
3%
29.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.27 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 27W 11D 14L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 24W 18D 10L from 52 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.73 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 2.04 PPG from 25 outings (15W 6D 4L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 11W 8D 6L from 25 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.62 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 27W 11D 14L in their last 52 games (1.77 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 24W 18D 10L in their last 52 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.04 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Djurgardens IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 56%, IF Elfsborg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Djurgardens IF) and 48% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 52% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 48% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Djurgardens IF 0-3 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.94 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.27 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.9 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.27 / defence 1.08 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.13 / defence 1.03, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 52% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 24%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a IF Elfsborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 54%, IF Elfsborg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.77 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.