Djurgardens IF 1-2 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 August 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF at Tele2 Arena this season: 3W 2D 1L from 6 home games — 1.83 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Djurgardens IF have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 38% versus Hammarby FF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 54% | Hammarby FF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.89 xG and Hammarby FF 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.195 / defence 0.975 | Hammarby FF attack 0.754 / defence 1.457. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.286. Hammarby FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.457 — this is suppressing Djurgardens IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Djurgardens IF games / 13 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 58% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 17%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Hammarby FF 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 50% | Hammarby FF 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 58% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.89 / Hammarby FF 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.195 / def 0.975 | Hammarby FF attack 0.754 / def 1.457 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Hammarby FF xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 August 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 2 Hammarby FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 58% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.20) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
58%
1.72
25%
3.95
17%
5.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.84
0.94
Hammarby FF xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.98
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
3%
39.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.94 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 7W 2D 4L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 4W 5D 4L from 13 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Djurgardens IF are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hammarby FF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.08 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 games (1.77 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.83 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Djurgardens IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
4
Draws
4
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 50%, Hammarby FF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Djurgardens IF and 83% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Djurgardens IF's games and 67% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 83% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hammarby FF defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Djurgardens IF 1-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.89 xG and Hammarby FF 0.94 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.20 / defence 0.97 against Hammarby FF attack 0.75 / defence 1.46, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 58% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 17%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Hammarby FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 54%, Hammarby FF 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Hammarby FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.