Djurgardens IF 1-4 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host AIK Stockholm at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 8W 1D 1L at Tele2 Arena — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Djurgardens IF) versus 1.80 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 49% versus AIK Stockholm 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 56% | AIK Stockholm 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.01 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.351 / defence 0.755 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.885 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.097. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Djurgardens IF's defence rating of 0.755 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Djurgardens IF games / 43 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 66% | Draw 23% | AIK Stockholm 11%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | AIK Stockholm 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 30% | AIK Stockholm 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 66% | Draw 23% | AIK Stockholm 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 46% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.01 / AIK Stockholm 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.351 / def 0.755 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.885 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.73
AIK Stockholm xG
46%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 4 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 66% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
66%
1.52
23%
4.42
11%
8.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.74
0.73
AIK Stockholm xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
8.79
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
2%
65.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.73 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 23W 9D 11L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 17W 12D 14L from 43 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.81 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 2.05 PPG from 20 outings (12W 5D 3L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 5W 8D 7L from 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.09 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; AIK Stockholm in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 23W 9D 11L in their last 43 games (1.81 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 17W 12D 14L in their last 43 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.05 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
6
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 55%, AIK Stockholm 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Djurgardens IF) and 40% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 45% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 40% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AIK Stockholm run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Djurgardens IF 1-4 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.01 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.73 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. AIK Stockholm outscored their 0.73 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.35 / defence 0.76 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.89 / defence 1.03, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 66% | Draw 23% | AIK Stockholm 11%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a AIK Stockholm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 56%, AIK Stockholm 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.81 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.