Degerfors IF 1-2 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Malmo FF travel to Stora Valla to take on Degerfors IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 September 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stora Valla — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Degerfors IF) versus 1.50 (Malmo FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Malmo FF, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Degerfors IF.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2023, ended 0–5 with Malmo FF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Malmo FF have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 57% versus Malmo FF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 55% | Malmo FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.97 xG and Malmo FF 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.827 / defence 1.020 | Malmo FF attack 1.177 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.290. Malmo FF's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Degerfors IF games / 53 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 24% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 51%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Malmo FF 1.96. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 50% | Malmo FF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 24% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Degerfors IF 0.97 / Malmo FF 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.827 / def 1.020 | Malmo FF attack 1.177 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Malmo FF xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Degerfors IF 1 - 2 Malmo FF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 24% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Degerfors IF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Malmo FF?
Record (5 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | Malmo FF 4W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Malmo FF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
24%
4.24
26%
3.92
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.51
1.55
Malmo FF xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
5%
19.95
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.55 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 14W 12D 27L from 53 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 14L across 53 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 10W 8D 8L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Degerfors IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Malmo FF's away record stands at 12W 4D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.75 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 14W 12D 27L in their last 53 games (1.02 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 28W 11D 14L in their last 53 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.46 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2021, when Malmo FF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
7
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Malmo FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Malmo FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 54%, Malmo FF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Degerfors IF) and 54% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: Malmo FF in 35%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 35% of games; Malmo FF in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 46% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 54% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out Degerfors IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Degerfors IF 1-2 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.97 xG and Malmo FF 1.55 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Malmo FF attack 1.18 / defence 0.78, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 24% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 51%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 55%, Malmo FF 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Malmo FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.