Degerfors IF 4-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 28 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IFK Norrkoping (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, IFK Norrkoping are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IFK Norrkoping in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Degerfors IF lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
IFK Norrkoping half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 46% versus IFK Norrkoping 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 57% | IFK Norrkoping 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.32 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.833 / defence 1.367 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.933 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.168. Data: 28 Degerfors IF games / 58 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 34% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 41%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | IFK Norrkoping 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Norrkoping at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | IFK Norrkoping 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 34% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Degerfors IF 1.32 / IFK Norrkoping 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.833 / def 1.367 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.933 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.49
IFK Norrkoping xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Degerfors IF 4 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 34% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 1 | IFK Norrkoping 0W.
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.83) and IFK Norrkoping's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.93x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
34%
2.98
25%
3.98
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.81
1.49
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
8%
13.24
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.49 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 4D 16L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, IFK Norrkoping sit at 1.57 PPG from 28 outings (13W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five.
IFK Norrkoping carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Degerfors IF's home form reads 6W 1D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Norrkoping have taken 1.14 points per game from 14 outings (5W 1D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IFK Norrkoping's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.54 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 61%.
Last 28 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 8W 4D 16L in their last 28 games (1.00 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 13W 5D 10L in their last 28 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.36 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 4-1 on 28 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Degerfors IF
3
Draws
3
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 8 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 2, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2025, when Degerfors IF 0-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 50%, IFK Norrkoping 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Degerfors IF and 57% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 29% of games; IFK Norrkoping in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play IFK Norrkoping?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 50% of IFK Norrkoping's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Degerfors IF's matches and 57% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Degerfors IF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of IFK Norrkoping.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat IFK Norrkoping 4-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.32 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.49 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.83 / defence 1.37 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 34% | Draw 25% | IFK Norrkoping 41%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 57%, IFK Norrkoping 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Norrkoping arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.