Degerfors IF 0-1 Halmstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Halmstad at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Halmstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus Halmstad in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Monday 20 October 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stora Valla this season.
Halmstad's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Degerfors IF, 1.10 for Halmstad — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Degerfors IF, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Halmstad — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 5–0 with Degerfors IF winning.
The historical record gives Degerfors IF a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Halmstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 59% versus Halmstad 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 52% | Halmstad 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.85 xG and Halmstad 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.505 / defence 1.057 | Halmstad attack 0.711 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.348. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.505 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Degerfors IF games / 56 Halmstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 29% | Draw 33% | Halmstad 38%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Halmstad 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Halmstad as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Halmstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 40% | Halmstad 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Halmstad | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Monday 20 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 29% | Draw 33% | Halmstad 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Degerfors IF 0.85 / Halmstad 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.505 / def 1.057 | Halmstad attack 0.711 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Halmstad xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Halmstad kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Halmstad kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 20 October 2025 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Degerfors IF 0 - 1 Halmstad.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Halmstad part of?
Degerfors IF vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 29% chance of winning, Halmstad a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Degerfors IF and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Halmstad?
Record (5 meetings): Degerfors IF 3W | Draws 2 | Halmstad 0W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Halmstad in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Halmstad (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.51x the league average against Halmstad's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Halmstad's attack (0.71x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
29%
3.45
33%
3.01
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
1.86
1.01
Halmstad xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 15.7 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.01 for Halmstad, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF come into this having played 56 games, going 21W 15D 20L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Halmstad sit at 1.09 PPG from 56 outings (18W 7D 31L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.09 for Halmstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Degerfors IF's home form reads 10W 7D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Halmstad have taken 0.75 points per game from 28 outings (6W 3D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Halmstad are on 0.95 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Halmstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Halmstad in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 21W 15D 20L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Halmstad have gone 18W 7D 31L in their last 56 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Halmstad away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.32 PPG; Halmstad away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 0-5 on 30 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Halmstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
1
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Halmstad?
From 7 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 4, Halmstad have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Halmstad last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Halmstad 0-3 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Halmstad?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 54%, Halmstad 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Degerfors IF) and 54% (Halmstad).
On the defensive side: Halmstad in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Halmstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 46% of Halmstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Halmstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 54% of Halmstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Halmstad tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Halmstad in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Halmstad edge out Degerfors IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Halmstad beat Degerfors IF 0-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.85 xG and Halmstad 1.01 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Degerfors IF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.51 / defence 1.06 against Halmstad attack 0.71 / defence 1.11, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 29% | Draw 33% | Halmstad 38%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 52%, Halmstad 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Halmstad's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.39 PPG, Halmstad 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Halmstad win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Halmstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.