BK Hacken 1-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees IF Elfsborg travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 July 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Bravida Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BK Hacken 1.50 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. BK Hacken register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, IF Elfsborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg trading profile (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 58% versus IF Elfsborg 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 51% | IF Elfsborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.19 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.075 / defence 1.147 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.053 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.157. IF Elfsborg's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 BK Hacken games / 42 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 31% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 40%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | IF Elfsborg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 70% | IF Elfsborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 31% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG BK Hacken 1.19 / IF Elfsborg 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.075 / def 1.147 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.053 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.40
IF Elfsborg xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 25 July 2021 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken 1 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg part of?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 31% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.07) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
31%
3.25
29%
3.46
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.59
1.40
IF Elfsborg xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
8%
13.15
12%
8.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.40 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 16W 16D 9L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 18W 16D 7L from 41 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.56 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 1.89 PPG from 19 outings (11W 3D 5L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 8W 7D 4L from 19 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.61 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Elfsborg in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 16W 16D 9L in their last 41 games (1.56 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 18W 16D 7L in their last 41 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or IF Elfsborg away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.89 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.63 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
BK Hacken's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BK Hacken
3
Draws
3
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 53%, IF Elfsborg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for BK Hacken and 47% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of BK Hacken's games and 58% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of BK Hacken's matches and 47% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 12, as BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.19 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.40 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.05 / defence 0.74, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 31% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 40%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 51%, IF Elfsborg 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.56 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.