BK Hacken 6-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees IF Elfsborg travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken. The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 July 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 2W 4D 1L from 7 Allsvenskan matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. BK Hacken have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
BK Hacken's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 games at Bravida Arena this term (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bravida Arena. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.43 — BK Hacken are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 3W 4D 0L from 7 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.86 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 0.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.71 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. IF Elfsborg have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 0L across 4 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BK Hacken 1.43 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.86 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
BK Hacken trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 57% versus IF Elfsborg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (BK Hacken 43% | IF Elfsborg 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 0.92 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.073 / defence 0.900 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.834 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.112. Data: 7 BK Hacken games / 7 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 36% | Draw 33% | IF Elfsborg 31%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | IF Elfsborg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — IF Elfsborg's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 33% | IF Elfsborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 36% | Draw 33% | IF Elfsborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG BK Hacken 0.92 / IF Elfsborg 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.073 / def 0.900 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.834 / def 0.887 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
0.83
IF Elfsborg xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 16 July 2020 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken 6 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg part of?
BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 36% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-4D-0L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 0.71 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.07) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
36%
2.80
33%
3.00
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
1.76
0.83
IF Elfsborg xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 14.4 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.83 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 2W 4D 1L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for BK Hacken, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 3W 4D 0L from 7 games, 1.86 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against BK Hacken.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 2.33 PPG from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.14 scored and 0.71 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; IF Elfsborg in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Early Season
IF Elfsborg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 3W 4D 0L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or IF Elfsborg away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.33 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.67 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
BK Hacken's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BK Hacken
3
Draws
3
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 33%, IF Elfsborg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for BK Hacken and 33% for IF Elfsborg.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 33%; IF Elfsborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 67% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BK Hacken vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of BK Hacken's recent games and 33% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BK Hacken and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BK Hacken run riot with a 6-0 hammering of IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat IF Elfsborg 6-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 0.92 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.83 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 5.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Elfsborg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.83 / defence 0.89, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 36% | Draw 33% | IF Elfsborg 31%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 43%, IF Elfsborg 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with BK Hacken winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.