BK Hacken 1-2 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as BK Hacken face Gais.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Gais travel to Bravida Arena to take on BK Hacken in Allsvenskan (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
BK Hacken — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
BK Hacken at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gais stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Gais away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — BK Hacken at 1.20 PPG versus Gais's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, BK Hacken have won 0, Gais 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 May 2024, ended BK Hacken 0–3 Gais — a Gais win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Gais in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 64% versus Gais 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 72% | Gais 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 1.84 xG and Gais 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.166 / defence 1.154 | Gais attack 0.726 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.252. Gais's attack rating of 0.726 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from BK Hacken's last 58 games and Gais's last 28.
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 55% | Draw 24% | Gais 21%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.81 | Draw 4.14 | Gais 4.82. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (BK Hacken's last 10 home games and Gais's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: BK Hacken 70% (last 10 home games) | Gais 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 29 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 55% | Draw 24% | Gais 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG BK Hacken 1.84 / Gais 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.166 / def 1.154 | Gais attack 0.726 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Gais xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BK Hacken vs Gais FAQs
What time does BK Hacken vs Gais kick off?
BK Hacken vs Gais kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Gais?
BK Hacken 1 - 2 Gais.
Where is BK Hacken vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Gais part of?
BK Hacken vs Gais is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 29) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 55% chance of winning, Gais a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both BK Hacken and Gais will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will BK Hacken vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.17x the league average against Gais's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from BK Hacken's last 58 games and Gais's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.14
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
2.89
1.05
Gais xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
3%
30.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BK Hacken vs Gais Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.05 for Gais, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Gais?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
BK Hacken come into this having played 58 games, going 30W 9D 19L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.71 PPG from 58 outings (29W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.71 PPG, Gais on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
BK Hacken's home form reads 20W 3D 6L across their last 29 home games, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.45 points per game from their last 29 away games (12W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.60 scored and 0.95 conceded. BK Hacken's scoring rate against Gais's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gais in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
Gais
Current Season
BK Hacken (Home) vs Gais (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BK Hacken
Current Season
Gais
Current Season
❓ BK Hacken vs Gais Form FAQs
What form are BK Hacken and Gais in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 30W 9D 19L in their last 58 games (1.71 PPG), while Gais have gone 29W 12D 17L in their last 58 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Gais away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.17 PPG; Gais away: 1.45 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Gais in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 May 2024, when Gais won Gais 3-0 BK Hacken.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
BK Hacken
1
Draws
4
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ BK Hacken vs Gais H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Gais?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, BK Hacken have won 1, Gais have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Gais last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Gais 0-0 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 76%, Gais 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for BK Hacken and 55% for Gais. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 66% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais in 34%; Gais in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BK Hacken vs Gais Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BK Hacken and Gais matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of BK Hacken's games and 45% of Gais's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are BK Hacken and Gais matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of BK Hacken's matches and 55% of Gais's.
Do BK Hacken and Gais matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 69% of Gais's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat BK Hacken 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat BK Hacken 1-2 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 1.84 xG and Gais 1.05 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BK Hacken fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Gais outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.17 / defence 1.15 against Gais attack 0.73 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 55% | Draw 24% | Gais 21%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Gais win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 72%, Gais 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Gais's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.71 PPG, Gais 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.72 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.