AIK Stockholm 1-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Friends Arena to take on AIK Stockholm. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm at Friends Arena this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Friends Arena.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AIK Stockholm, 1 for Mjallby AIF and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
AIK Stockholm trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 49% versus Mjallby AIF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 47% | Mjallby AIF 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.09 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.012 / defence 0.791 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.094 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.239. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AIK Stockholm's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 AIK Stockholm games / 55 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 36% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 35%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Mjallby AIF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 50% | Mjallby AIF 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 36% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.09 / Mjallby AIF 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.012 / def 0.791 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.094 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Mjallby AIF xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 36% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
Record (4 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 2 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 1.01x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
36%
2.80
29%
3.40
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.16
1.07
Mjallby AIF xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.07 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 15D 19L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.40 PPG from 55 outings (21W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.42 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 12W 9D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.63 points per game from 27 outings (13W 5D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.07 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 21W 15D 19L in their last 55 games (1.42 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 21W 14D 20L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Mjallby AIF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.67 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.63 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
2
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — AIK Stockholm 37% BTTS, Mjallby AIF 22%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 41% for AIK Stockholm and 26% for Mjallby AIF.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 48%; Mjallby AIF in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 22% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 26% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Mjallby AIF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Mjallby AIF 1-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.09 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.07 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.01 / defence 0.79 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.09 / defence 0.75, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 36% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 35%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 47%, Mjallby AIF 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.42 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.