AIK Stockholm 4-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm and GIF Sundsvall meet at Friends Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 September 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
AIK Stockholm's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm at Friends Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Friends Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — AIK Stockholm are significantly better at Friends Arena than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward AIK Stockholm. A 1.20 PPG lead over GIF Sundsvall (1.60 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for AIK Stockholm, 0 for GIF Sundsvall and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 2–0 with AIK Stockholm winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AIK Stockholm — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 46% versus GIF Sundsvall 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 42% | GIF Sundsvall 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 2.26 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.022 / defence 0.942 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.672 / defence 1.518. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.154. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.518 — this is suppressing AIK Stockholm's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 AIK Stockholm games / 20 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 72% | Draw 17% | GIF Sundsvall 10%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | GIF Sundsvall 10.00. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 30% | GIF Sundsvall 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Friends Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 72% | Draw 17% | GIF Sundsvall 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 46% | xG AIK Stockholm 2.26 / GIF Sundsvall 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.022 / def 0.942 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.672 / def 1.518 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
0.73
GIF Sundsvall xG
46%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Friends Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs GIF Sundsvall?
AIK Stockholm 4 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Friends Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
AIK Stockholm vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 72% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AIK Stockholm and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and GIF Sundsvall in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (1.02) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 2.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.67x) against AIK Stockholm's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 3-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
72%
1.39
17%
5.74
10%
9.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.99
0.73
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.74
17%
Draw
9.53
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
10%
9.60
Win to Nil
35%
2.88
1%
91.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 0.73 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, AIK Stockholm have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 28W 11D 11L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 18W 9D 23L from 50 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AIK Stockholm are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIF Sundsvall.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AIK Stockholm have posted 2.48 PPG from 25 outings (19W 5D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — AIK Stockholm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 5D 14L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.30 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 28W 11D 11L in their last 50 games (1.90 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 9D 23L in their last 50 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 2.48 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.92 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
AIK Stockholm
0
Draws
0
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and GIF Sundsvall?
From 2 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2022, when AIK Stockholm 4-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and GIF Sundsvall?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 36%, GIF Sundsvall 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (AIK Stockholm) and 48% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 60% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 48% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AIK Stockholm run riot with a 4-0 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat GIF Sundsvall 4-0 at Friends Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 2.26 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.73 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. AIK Stockholm beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.67 / defence 1.52, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 72% | Draw 17% | GIF Sundsvall 10%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 42%, GIF Sundsvall 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.