Villarreal 1-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Villarreal welcome Mallorca to Estadio de la Cerámica. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Villarreal — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Villarreal have posted 3W 1D 6L at Estadio de la Cerámica — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Villarreal at 1.00 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Villarreal have won 2, Mallorca 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Villarreal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 60% versus Mallorca 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 59% | Mallorca 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.57 xG and Mallorca 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.169 / defence 1.383 | Mallorca attack 0.767 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.132. Data: 58 Villarreal games / 58 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 44% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 27%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Mallorca 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 90% | Mallorca 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 44% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Villarreal 1.57 / Mallorca 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.169 / def 1.383 | Mallorca attack 0.767 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Mallorca xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Mallorca kick off?
Villarreal vs Mallorca kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Villarreal 1 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Villarreal vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Mallorca part of?
Villarreal vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 44% chance of winning, Mallorca a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Villarreal and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Mallorca?
Record (5 meetings): Villarreal 2W | Draws 1 | Mallorca 2W.
What form are Villarreal and Mallorca in?
Villarreal (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Mallorca (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Villarreal's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.52
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.78
1.20
Mallorca xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
6%
17.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.20 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Villarreal's recent record stands at 24W 11D 23L from 58 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 23L across 58 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Villarreal on 1.43 PPG, Mallorca on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 15W 4D 10L from 29 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mallorca's away record stands at 5W 6D 18L across 29 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Villarreal are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.95 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 24W 11D 23L in their last 58 games (1.43 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 17W 18D 23L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Mallorca away?
Villarreal's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.69 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Mallorca in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Villarreal and Mallorca runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jan 2025, when Villarreal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Villarreal's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Mallorca have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Mallorca 1-1 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Mallorca?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 69%, Mallorca 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Villarreal) and 38% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Villarreal's recent matches and 38% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Villarreal vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Villarreal's recent games and 38% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Mallorca tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Villarreal and Mallorca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal and Mallorca finished level at 1-1 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.57 xG and Mallorca 1.20 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.17 / defence 1.38 against Mallorca attack 0.77 / defence 0.97, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 44% | Draw 28% | Mallorca 27%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 59%, Mallorca 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.43 PPG, Mallorca 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.