Villarreal 2-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 79%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Ciudad de Valencia plays host to Villarreal versus Almeria in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 23 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Villarreal have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
Almeria (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria away from home this season: 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Villarreal's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Villarreal half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 10% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Almeria half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Villarreal 10% | Almeria 60%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 30% | Almeria 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 2.48 xG and Almeria 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.234 / defence 0.768 | Almeria attack 0.636 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.165. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Villarreal's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Villarreal's defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Villarreal games / 10 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 79% | Draw 14% | Almeria 7%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 1.27 | Draw 7.14 | Almeria 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Villarreal (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 50% | Almeria 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 79% | Draw 14% | Almeria 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 40% | xG Villarreal 2.48 / Almeria 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.234 / def 0.768 | Almeria attack 0.636 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Almeria xG
40%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Almeria kick off?
Villarreal vs Almeria kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Almeria?
Villarreal 2 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Villarreal vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Villarreal vs Almeria part of?
Villarreal vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 79% chance of winning, Almeria a 7% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Villarreal and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Almeria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Villarreal and Almeria in?
Villarreal (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Almeria (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Villarreal's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Almeria's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.48. Flip it around — Almeria's attack (0.64x) against Villarreal's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.57.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
79%
1.26
14%
7.03
7%
15.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Villarreal xG
Total xG
3.04
0.57
Almeria xG
1.26
79%
Home win
7.03
14%
Draw
15.24
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
57%
1.77
8%
11.89
Win to Nil
45%
2.23
1%
181.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.57 for Almeria, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Almeria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal's recent record stands at 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almeria, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 6L across 10 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almeria heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Villarreal have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Villarreal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Almeria's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.10 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 10% of their recent games; Almeria in 60%.
Defensively: Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Almeria in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Almeria have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Almeria away?
Villarreal's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 2.33 PPG; Almeria away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Almeria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Almeria in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Villarreal go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Almeria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Villarreal
0
Draws
0
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 4, Almeria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Almeria 1-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Almeria?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Villarreal) and 33% (Almeria) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Villarreal) and 67% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Almeria in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Almeria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Villarreal's recent matches and 33% of Almeria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Villarreal vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Villarreal's recent games and 67% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Almeria tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Almeria in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Almeria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Almeria 2-1 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 2.48 xG and Almeria 0.57 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.23 / defence 0.77 against Almeria attack 0.64 / defence 1.41, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 79% | Draw 14% | Almeria 7%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 79%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 30%, Almeria 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (10 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 10% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Almeria's trading profile (10 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.