Valladolid 2-1 Elche – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valladolid at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valladolid vs Elche encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Valladolid welcome Elche to Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 November 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Valladolid have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Valladolid have posted 3W 1D 2L at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Elche stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Elche's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Valladolid are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Valladolid trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Elche trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 33% versus Elche 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 42% | Elche 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.53 xG and Elche 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.822 / defence 0.954 | Elche attack 0.944 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.125. Elche bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Valladolid's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Valladolid games / 50 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 49% | Draw 26% | Elche 25%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Elche 4.00. Valladolid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valladolid at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valladolid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 17% | Elche 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 49% | Draw 26% | Elche 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Valladolid 1.53 / Elche 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.822 / def 0.954 | Elche attack 0.944 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Valladolid (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Elche xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Elche kick off?
Valladolid vs Elche kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Elche?
Valladolid 2 - 1 Elche.
Where is Valladolid vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Elche part of?
Valladolid vs Elche is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 49% chance of winning, Elche a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Valladolid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Valladolid and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Elche?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valladolid and Elche in?
Valladolid (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Elche (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.82) and Elche's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Elche's attack versus Valladolid's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valladolid Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.89
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.54
1.01
Elche xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
5%
18.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.01 for Elche, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Elche?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Valladolid have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 4W 2D 6L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Elche's form line: 0W 4D 8L from 12 games, 0.33 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Valladolid are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Elche.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Valladolid have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Valladolid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Elche have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valladolid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valladolid are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 0.67 scored and 2.25 conceded.
Last 12 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Elche
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Elche in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Elche have gone 0W 4D 8L in their last 12 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Elche away?
Valladolid's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.67 PPG; Elche away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valladolid and Elche runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Valladolid
1
Draws
0
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Elche?
From 2 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 1, Elche have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Elche 1-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Elche?
Valladolid have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Valladolid 17% BTTS, Elche 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Valladolid and 100% for Elche. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Valladolid have failed to score in 50% of games; Elche in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Elche?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Valladolid's recent matches and 50% of Elche's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Valladolid's matches and 100% of Elche's.
Do Valladolid and Elche tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Elche in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valladolid edge out Elche 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valladolid beat Elche 2-1 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 13, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.53 xG and Elche 1.01 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Elche attack 0.94 / defence 1.33, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 49% | Draw 26% | Elche 25%, with Valladolid to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 42%, Elche 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Elche's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valladolid arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.33. Form held, and they took the win. Valladolid (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.