Valencia 2-2 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valencia at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mestalla plays host to Valencia versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 23 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valencia have collected 1.33 PPG across 9 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.22 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia's home record at Estadio de Mestalla: 2W 1D 1L from 4 La Liga appearances (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Mestalla.
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 4L from 9 games (1.22 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 1W 0D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.33 vs 1.22 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 67% versus Mallorca 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valencia 56% | Mallorca 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.66 xG and Mallorca 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 1.055 / defence 1.151 | Mallorca attack 0.710 / defence 1.574. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 0.907. Mallorca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.574 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Valencia games / 9 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 58% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 15%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Mallorca 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Valencia (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 50% | Mallorca 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 58% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Valencia 1.66 / Mallorca 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 1.055 / def 1.151 | Mallorca attack 0.710 / def 1.574 | league avg home 1.002 / away 0.907 • Poisson stance: Valencia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Mallorca xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Mallorca kick off?
Valencia vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Mallorca?
Valencia 2 - 2 Mallorca.
Where is Valencia vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Mallorca part of?
Valencia vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 58% chance of winning, Mallorca a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Valencia and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Mallorca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valencia and Mallorca in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.44 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valencia's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.71x) against Valencia's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
58%
1.71
26%
3.82
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.40
0.74
Mallorca xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
3%
34.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.1 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Valencia and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Valencia and 0.74 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 3W 3D 3L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca's form line: 3W 2D 4L from 9 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Valencia against 1.22 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.78 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Mallorca in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Mallorca away?
Valencia's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.75 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Valencia or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mallorca in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valencia
5
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Mallorca have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Mallorca 1-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Mallorca tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 50%, Mallorca 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Valencia) and 25% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Mallorca in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Valencia's recent matches and 25% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Valencia's recent games and 25% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Mallorca tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valencia and Mallorca share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia and Mallorca finished level at 2-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.66 xG and Mallorca 0.74 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Mallorca attack 0.71 / defence 1.57, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 58% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 15%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 56%, Mallorca 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Mallorca's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.33 PPG, Mallorca 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valencia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.