Sevilla 2-2 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sevilla at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sevilla vs Alaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to face Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sevilla have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán this season: 5W 0D 0L from 5 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Sevilla are significantly better at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán than their overall form suggests.
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Sevilla's favour (2.10 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sevilla 33% | Alaves 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sevilla 25% | Alaves 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.72 xG and Alaves 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.505 / defence 1.079 | Alaves attack 0.738 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.098. Sevilla carry an above-average attack strength of 1.505 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 12 Sevilla games / 12 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 56% | Draw 27% | Alaves 17%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Alaves 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sevilla (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 40% | Alaves 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 56% | Draw 27% | Alaves 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Sevilla 1.72 / Alaves 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.505 / def 1.079 | Alaves attack 0.738 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Alaves xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Alaves kick off?
Sevilla vs Alaves kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Alaves?
Sevilla 2 - 2 Alaves.
Where is Sevilla vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Alaves part of?
Sevilla vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 56% chance of winning, Alaves a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sevilla and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Alaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sevilla and Alaves in?
Sevilla (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Alaves (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sevilla's attack at 1.50x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.74x) against Sevilla's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
56%
1.80
27%
3.65
17%
5.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.59
0.88
Alaves xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.86
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
3%
32.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.88 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sevilla come into this having played 12 games, going 8W 3D 1L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.08 PPG from 12 outings (4W 1D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sevilla carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sevilla's home form reads 5W 0D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.25 PPG overall — Sevilla are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sevilla are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.67 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves in 25%.
Defensively: Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Alaves in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 8W 3D 1L in their last 12 games (2.25 PPG), while Alaves have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Alaves away?
Sevilla's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 3.00 PPG; Alaves away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Alaves in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sevilla
4
Draws
3
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 1, Alaves have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sevilla 1-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Alaves?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Sevilla) and 20% (Alaves) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sevilla) and 20% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Alaves in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Sevilla's recent matches and 20% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Sevilla's recent games and 20% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Alaves tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Alaves in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sevilla and Alaves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 14, as Sevilla and Alaves drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.72 xG and Alaves 0.88 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alaves outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.50 / defence 1.08 against Alaves attack 0.74 / defence 1.09, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 56% | Draw 27% | Alaves 17%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 25%, Alaves 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Alaves's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sevilla (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.