Real Betis 0-2 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Betis at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Real Betis vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Real Betis host Cadiz at Estadio Benito Villamarín in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 April 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Betis stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Betis at Estadio Benito Villamarín this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cadiz — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Real Betis are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Real Betis, 0 for Cadiz and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Real Betis in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Cadiz in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 48% versus Cadiz 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Betis 51% | Cadiz 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.31 xG and Cadiz 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 0.947 / defence 0.984 | Cadiz attack 0.768 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.037. Data: 65 Real Betis games / 65 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 49% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 22%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Cadiz 4.55. Real Betis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Betis are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: Real Betis 70% | Cadiz 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 49% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Real Betis 1.31 / Cadiz 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 0.947 / def 0.984 | Cadiz attack 0.768 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Cadiz xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Cadiz kick off?
Real Betis vs Cadiz kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Real Betis 0 - 2 Cadiz.
Where is Real Betis vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Cadiz part of?
Real Betis vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 49% chance of winning, Cadiz a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Real Betis and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Cadiz?
Record (3 meetings): Real Betis 1W | Draws 2 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Real Betis and Cadiz in?
Real Betis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Cadiz (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Real Betis's attack rating (0.95) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Real Betis's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.50
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Real Betis xG
Total xG
2.10
0.78
Cadiz xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
6%
16.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.78 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Real Betis come into this having played 65 games, going 32W 14D 19L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 1.03 PPG from 65 outings (14W 25D 26L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Betis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Real Betis's home form reads 17W 5D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 0.97 points per game from 32 outings (7W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Real Betis are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.86 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 32W 14D 19L in their last 65 games (1.69 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 14W 25D 26L in their last 65 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Cadiz away?
Real Betis's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 1.75 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cadiz in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Real Betis and Cadiz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Real Betis's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Real Betis
3
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 2, Cadiz have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when Cadiz 0-2 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Cadiz?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 50%, Cadiz 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Real Betis) and 38% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Real Betis keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cadiz in 34%; Cadiz in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Real Betis's recent matches and 41% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Betis vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Real Betis's recent games and 38% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Cadiz tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Real Betis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Real Betis 0-2 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.31 xG and Cadiz 0.78 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Real Betis fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cadiz outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Cadiz attack 0.77 / defence 1.01, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 49% | Draw 29% | Cadiz 22%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Cadiz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 51%, Cadiz 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cadiz's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Cadiz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.