Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 28 as Rayo Vallecano welcome Levante to Campo de Futbol de Vallecas. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 March 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Rayo Vallecano have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayo Vallecano's home record at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas: 4W 5D 1L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
Levante — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Levante have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rayo Vallecano at 1.30 PPG versus Levante's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rayo Vallecano, 1 for Levante and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rayo Vallecano in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Levante in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 44% versus Levante 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 41% | Levante 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.73 xG and Levante 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.965 / defence 0.869 | Levante attack 0.904 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.119. Data: 65 Rayo Vallecano games / 27 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 57% | Draw 24% | Levante 18%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Levante 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Rayo Vallecano (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayo Vallecano are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rayo Vallecano 50% | Levante 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas • Kick-off: Monday 16 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 57% | Draw 24% | Levante 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.73 / Levante 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.965 / def 0.869 | Levante attack 0.904 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Levante xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Levante kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Levante kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 16 March 2026 at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 1 Levante.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Levante part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Levante is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 57% chance of winning, Levante a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Levante?
Record (3 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 1W | Draws 1 | Levante 1W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Levante in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Levante (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rayo Vallecano's attack at 0.96x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.11
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.61
0.88
Levante xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
3%
30.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.88 for Levante, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayo Vallecano come into this having played 27 games, going 7W 10D 10L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Levante sit at 0.81 PPG from 27 outings (5W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayo Vallecano on 1.15 PPG, Levante on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rayo Vallecano's home form reads 4W 7D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Levante have taken 0.85 points per game from 13 outings (3W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.07 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 27 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Levante in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 7W 10D 10L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while Levante have gone 5W 7D 15L in their last 27 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Levante away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.46 PPG; Levante away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when Rayo Vallecano won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayo Vallecano's record when hosting Levante specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rayo Vallecano
2
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 1, Levante have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Levante.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 54%, Levante 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Rayo Vallecano) and 46% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Levante in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 38% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 46% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Levante tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Levante in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayo Vallecano and Levante share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Regular Season - 28, as Rayo Vallecano and Levante drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.73 xG and Levante 0.88 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.96 / defence 0.87 against Levante attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 57% | Draw 24% | Levante 18%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 41%, Levante 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Levante's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.15 PPG, Levante 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.