Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo meet at Estadio de Vallecas in La Liga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Rayo Vallecano's overall La Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio de Vallecas, Rayo Vallecano have gone 5W 0D 0L this season (5 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Vallecas. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Rayo Vallecano are significantly better at Estadio de Vallecas than their overall form suggests.
Celta Vigo (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's away record: 2W 1D 2L from 5 road trips in La Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Rayo Vallecano. A 0.90 PPG lead over Celta Vigo (1.90 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Rayo Vallecano goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 46% versus Celta Vigo 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayo Vallecano 64% | Celta Vigo 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.69 xG and Celta Vigo 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 1.379 / defence 0.958 | Celta Vigo attack 1.013 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.041. Rayo Vallecano carry an above-average attack strength of 1.379 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 Rayo Vallecano games / 11 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 51% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 20%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Celta Vigo 5.00. Rayo Vallecano hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Rayo Vallecano 40% | Celta Vigo 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 51% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.69 / Celta Vigo 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 1.379 / def 0.958 | Celta Vigo attack 1.013 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Celta Vigo xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Rayo Vallecano 0 - 0 Celta Vigo.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 51% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rayo Vallecano's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (1.01x) against Rayo Vallecano's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.45
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.70
1.01
Celta Vigo xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
4%
27.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.01 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rayo Vallecano's recent record stands at 6W 1D 4L from 11 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 7L across 11 games — 0.91 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rayo Vallecano by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Celta Vigo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rayo Vallecano have managed 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rayo Vallecano are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.91 PPG overall record — Celta Vigo travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 0.91 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo in 27%.
Defensively: Celta Vigo in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 6W 1D 4L in their last 11 games (1.73 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 3W 1D 7L in their last 11 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Celta Vigo away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 3.00 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 3-0 on 11 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayo Vallecano have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Rayo Vallecano
5
Draws
3
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Celta Vigo have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Celta Vigo 3-0 Rayo Vallecano.
Who has won more matches between Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Celta Vigo tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Rayo Vallecano) and 20% (Celta Vigo) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Rayo Vallecano and 40% for Celta Vigo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Celta Vigo in 60%; Celta Vigo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 20% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Rayo Vallecano's matches and 40% of Celta Vigo's.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rayo Vallecano's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo finished level at 0-0 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.69 xG and Celta Vigo 1.01 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Celta Vigo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 1.38 / defence 0.96 against Celta Vigo attack 1.01 / defence 1.15, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 51% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 20%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 64%, Celta Vigo 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rayo Vallecano arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.