Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Sadar plays host to Osasuna versus Villarreal in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Villarreal have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Osasuna, 2.00 for Villarreal — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Osasuna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Villarreal in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Osasuna 2W, Villarreal 3W, 1D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Villarreal half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osasuna 52% and Villarreal 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 46% | Villarreal 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.40 xG and Villarreal 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.009 / defence 1.000 | Villarreal attack 1.154 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.084. Data: 51 Osasuna games / 50 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 40% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 33%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Villarreal 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 70% | Villarreal 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 40% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Osasuna 1.40 / Villarreal 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.009 / def 1.000 | Villarreal attack 1.154 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Villarreal xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Villarreal kick off?
Osasuna vs Villarreal kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Osasuna 2 - 2 Villarreal.
Where is Osasuna vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Villarreal part of?
Osasuna vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 40% chance of winning, Villarreal a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Osasuna and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Villarreal?
Record (6 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 1 | Villarreal 3W.
What form are Osasuna and Villarreal in?
Osasuna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Villarreal (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 1.01x the league average against Villarreal's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (1.15x) against Osasuna's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
40%
2.48
26%
3.80
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.65
1.25
Villarreal xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.25 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Osasuna's recent record stands at 17W 12D 21L from 50 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 15L across 50 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Osasuna against 1.54 for Villarreal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 11W 6D 8L from 25 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Villarreal's away record stands at 11W 7D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Osasuna are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.76 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 80%.
Last 50 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 17W 12D 21L in their last 50 games (1.26 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 21W 14D 15L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.56 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 0-3 on 19 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Villarreal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Osasuna
3
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Villarreal?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 52% for Osasuna, 80% for Villarreal — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Osasuna) and 60% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Villarreal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Osasuna's games and 80% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Osasuna's recent games and 60% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Villarreal tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Villarreal share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna and Villarreal finished level at 2-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.40 xG and Villarreal 1.25 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Villarreal attack 1.15 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 40% | Draw 26% | Villarreal 33%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 46%, Villarreal 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.26 PPG, Villarreal 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.