Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Madrid (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Osasuna face Real Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osasuna and Real Madrid meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Osasuna (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Real Madrid's overall La Liga record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Madrid's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Real Madrid are 0.90 PPG clear of Osasuna in recent La Liga fixtures (2.70 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 9 meetings, Real Madrid have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Osasuna's 0, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Real Madrid winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Real Madrid have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Osasuna — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Real Madrid — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 74% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Real Madrid 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 44% | Real Madrid 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.19 xG and Real Madrid 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.124 / defence 1.103 | Real Madrid attack 1.359 / defence 0.704. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.140. Real Madrid's defence strength of 0.704 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Real Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Osasuna games / 62 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 25% | Draw 27% | Real Madrid 48%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Real Madrid 2.08. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Madrid if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 70% | Real Madrid 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 25% | Draw 27% | Real Madrid 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Osasuna 1.19 / Real Madrid 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.124 / def 1.103 | Real Madrid attack 1.359 / def 0.704 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Real Madrid xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Real Madrid kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Madrid kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Osasuna 2 - 1 Real Madrid.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Madrid part of?
Osasuna vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 25% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Osasuna and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Madrid?
Record (9 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 3 | Real Madrid 6W.
What form are Osasuna and Real Madrid in?
Osasuna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Real Madrid (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Osasuna's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Real Madrid's attack (1.36x) against Osasuna's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
25%
3.98
27%
3.77
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.90
1.71
Real Madrid xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
5%
22.00
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.71 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 62 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 20W 22D 20L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Madrid's form line: 45W 9D 8L from 62 games, 2.32 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Real Madrid are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Osasuna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.90 PPG from 30 outings (16W 9D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Real Madrid have gone 18W 7D 5L from 30 away games — 2.03 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Osasuna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.11 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Real Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 20W 22D 20L in their last 62 games (1.32 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 45W 9D 8L in their last 62 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.90 PPG; Real Madrid away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Madrid won 4-0 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Real Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Osasuna
3
Draws
6
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Real Madrid have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 70%, Real Madrid 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Osasuna) and 57% (Real Madrid). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Real Madrid in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Real Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Osasuna's games and 53% of Real Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Osasuna's matches and 57% of Real Madrid's.
Do Osasuna and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Real Madrid 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Real Madrid 2-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.19 xG and Real Madrid 1.71 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.12 / defence 1.10 against Real Madrid attack 1.36 / defence 0.70, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 25% | Draw 27% | Real Madrid 48%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Real Madrid 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Real Madrid's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Osasuna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.