Osasuna 3-2 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Betis (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Osasuna face Real Betis.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Sadar plays host to Osasuna versus Real Betis in La Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 22 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Real Betis (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Real Betis's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Real Betis arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Real Betis hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Real Betis winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Real Betis have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Real Betis half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 42% versus Real Betis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 34% | Real Betis 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.91 xG and Real Betis 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.758 / defence 1.072 | Real Betis attack 1.050 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.041. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Osasuna games / 67 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 28% | Draw 30% | Real Betis 42%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Real Betis 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Real Betis as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Betis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 30% | Real Betis 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 28% | Draw 30% | Real Betis 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Osasuna 0.91 / Real Betis 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.758 / def 1.072 | Real Betis attack 1.050 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Real Betis xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Real Betis kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Betis kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Osasuna 3 - 2 Real Betis.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Betis part of?
Osasuna vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 28% chance of winning, Real Betis a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Osasuna and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Betis?
Record (3 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 0 | Real Betis 3W.
What form are Osasuna and Real Betis in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Real Betis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.76x the league average against Real Betis's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Real Betis's attack (1.05x) against Osasuna's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
28%
3.51
30%
3.36
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.08
1.17
Real Betis xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
17%
5.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.6 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.17 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osasuna's recent record stands at 22W 19D 26L from 67 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Real Betis, meanwhile, have gone 33W 14D 20L across 67 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Betis by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Osasuna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 12W 8D 13L from 33 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Betis's away record stands at 15W 9D 9L across 33 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.48 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 67 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Real Betis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 22W 19D 26L in their last 67 games (1.27 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 33W 14D 20L in their last 67 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Betis away?
Real Betis's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.33 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Real Betis in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Betis won 4-1 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Real Betis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Osasuna
2
Draws
7
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Betis?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Real Betis have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Osasuna 1-1 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Real Betis see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 42%, Real Betis 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Osasuna) and 48% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Real Betis in 36%; Osasuna have failed to score in 33% of games; Real Betis in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Osasuna's recent matches and 46% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Osasuna's recent games and 48% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Real Betis 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Real Betis 3-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.91 xG and Real Betis 1.17 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Betis outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.76 / defence 1.07 against Real Betis attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 28% | Draw 30% | Real Betis 42%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 34%, Real Betis 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Real Betis's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Osasuna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm. Real Betis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.