Osasuna 2-0 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Levante make the trip to Estadio El Sadar to face Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 8 December 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Osasuna (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Sadar. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Levante have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante away from home this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Osasuna, 0.80 for Levante — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Osasuna lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 3–1 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Osasuna — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Levante — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 43% versus Levante 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 36% | Levante 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.54 xG and Levante 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.060 / defence 1.224 | Levante attack 0.970 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.124. Data: 52 Osasuna games / 14 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 25% | Levante 33%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Levante 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 50% | Levante 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Monday 8 Dec 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 42% | Draw 25% | Levante 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Osasuna 1.54 / Levante 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.060 / def 1.224 | Levante attack 0.970 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Levante xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Levante kick off?
Osasuna vs Levante kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 8 December 2025 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Levante?
Osasuna 2 - 0 Levante.
Where is Osasuna vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Levante part of?
Osasuna vs Levante is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 42% chance of winning, Levante a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Osasuna and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Levante?
Record (2 meetings): Osasuna 1W | Draws 1 | Levante 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Levante in?
Osasuna (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Levante (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (1.06) and Levante's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.97x) against Osasuna's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
42%
2.37
25%
4.04
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.88
1.33
Levante xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.33 for Levante, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Osasuna have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 3W 3D 8L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levante's form line: 2W 3D 9L from 14 games, 0.64 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Osasuna against 0.64 for Levante. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Levante have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.64 PPG overall record — Levante travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.14 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 14 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Levante
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Levante in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 3W 3D 8L in their last 14 games (0.86 PPG), while Levante have gone 2W 3D 9L in their last 14 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Levante away?
Osasuna's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.67 PPG; Levante away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levante — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Osasuna
2
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Levante?
From 5 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Levante have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Osasuna 0-0 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Levante?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 67%, Levante 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Osasuna) and 33% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Levante in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Levante?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Osasuna's games and 50% of Levante's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Osasuna's recent games and 33% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Levante tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Levante in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Levante.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Levante 2-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.54 xG and Levante 1.33 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Levante landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.06 / defence 1.22 against Levante attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 42% | Draw 25% | Levante 33%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 36%, Levante 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Levante's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 0.86 PPG, Levante 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Levante (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.