Osasuna 2-1 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osasuna at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Las Palmas encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Las Palmas at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 21 September 2024 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Osasuna stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Las Palmas have recorded 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Las Palmas's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Osasuna have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Osasuna have won 0, Las Palmas 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2024, ended Osasuna 1–1 Las Palmas — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Osasuna in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Las Palmas in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 51% versus Las Palmas 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 44% | Las Palmas 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.68 xG and Las Palmas 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.984 / defence 1.056 | Las Palmas attack 0.821 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.037. Data: built from Osasuna's last 43 games and Las Palmas's last 43.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 55% | Draw 26% | Las Palmas 19%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.83 | Draw 3.79 | Las Palmas 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 50% (last 10 home games) | Las Palmas 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, matchday 6 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 55% | Draw 26% | Las Palmas 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Osasuna 1.68 / Las Palmas 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.984 / def 1.056 | Las Palmas attack 0.821 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Las Palmas xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Las Palmas FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Las Palmas kick off?
Osasuna vs Las Palmas kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Las Palmas?
Osasuna 2 - 1 Las Palmas.
Where is Osasuna vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Las Palmas part of?
Osasuna vs Las Palmas is a La Liga fixture (matchday 6) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 55% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Osasuna and Las Palmas will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Osasuna vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Osasuna's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Las Palmas's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Las Palmas's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 43 games and Las Palmas's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.79
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.58
0.90
Las Palmas xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
4%
28.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Las Palmas Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.90 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Las Palmas?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 14W 10D 19L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Las Palmas's form line: 10W 12D 21L from 43 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.21 PPG, Las Palmas on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.43 PPG from their last 21 home games (8W 6D 7L).
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 4W 4D 13L from their last 21 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.91 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Las Palmas
Early Season
Osasuna (Home) vs Las Palmas (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Early Season
Las Palmas
Early Season
❓ Osasuna vs Las Palmas Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 10W 12D 21L in their last 43 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Las Palmas away?
Osasuna's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.43 PPG; Las Palmas away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 24 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Osasuna's record when hosting Las Palmas specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Osasuna
3
Draws
0
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Las Palmas H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Las Palmas?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 1, Las Palmas have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Las Palmas last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2025: Las Palmas 1-1 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Las Palmas?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 48%, Las Palmas 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Osasuna and 29% for Las Palmas.
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Las Palmas in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Las Palmas Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Las Palmas matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Osasuna's recent matches and 33% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osasuna and Las Palmas matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Osasuna's recent games and 29% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Las Palmas matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Osasuna's recent matches and 62% of Las Palmas's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osasuna edge out Las Palmas 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Las Palmas 2-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.68 xG and Las Palmas 0.90 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Las Palmas attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 55% | Draw 26% | Las Palmas 19%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Las Palmas 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Las Palmas's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.21 PPG, Las Palmas 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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