Osasuna 1-2 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Espanyol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 37 as Osasuna welcome Espanyol to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estadio El Sadar — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Espanyol have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Espanyol have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Osasuna at 0.90 PPG versus Espanyol's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Osasuna have won 2, Espanyol 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.1 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Espanyol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.1 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Espanyol in-play and half-time data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 60% versus Espanyol 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 47% | Espanyol 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.73 xG and Espanyol 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.000 / defence 1.075 | Espanyol attack 0.940 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.149. Data: 74 Osasuna games / 74 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 51% | Draw 24% | Espanyol 26%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Espanyol 3.85. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 90% | Espanyol 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 51% | Draw 24% | Espanyol 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Osasuna 1.73 / Espanyol 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.000 / def 1.075 | Espanyol attack 0.940 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Espanyol xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Espanyol kick off?
Osasuna vs Espanyol kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Osasuna 1 - 2 Espanyol.
Where is Osasuna vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Espanyol part of?
Osasuna vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 51% chance of winning, Espanyol a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Osasuna and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Espanyol?
Record (7 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 4 | Espanyol 1W.
What form are Osasuna and Espanyol in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Espanyol (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 1.00x the league average against Espanyol's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Espanyol's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.22
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.89
1.16
Espanyol xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
5%
22.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.16 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna's recent record stands at 23W 25D 26L from 74 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Espanyol, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 34L across 74 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.27 PPG, Espanyol on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 19W 11D 7L from 37 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Espanyol's away record stands at 7W 8D 22L across 37 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.08 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 74 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Espanyol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 23W 25D 26L in their last 74 games (1.27 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 22W 18D 34L in their last 74 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Espanyol away?
Osasuna's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.84 PPG; Espanyol away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Espanyol runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Espanyol have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Osasuna's record when hosting Espanyol specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Osasuna
4
Draws
2
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Espanyol?
From 8 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Espanyol have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Osasuna 1-2 Espanyol.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Espanyol see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 73%, Espanyol 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Osasuna) and 49% (Espanyol).
On the defensive side: Espanyol in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Espanyol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Osasuna's games and 54% of Espanyol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Osasuna's recent games and 49% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Espanyol tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Espanyol in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Espanyol defy the odds to beat Osasuna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol beat Osasuna 1-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.73 xG and Espanyol 1.16 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Espanyol outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.00 / defence 1.07 against Espanyol attack 0.94 / defence 1.14, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 51% | Draw 24% | Espanyol 26%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Espanyol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 47%, Espanyol 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Espanyol's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.27 PPG, Espanyol 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Espanyol win broke the near-deadlock. Espanyol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.