Osasuna 2-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Cadiz travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 January 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 1W 5D 4L at Estadio El Sadar — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cadiz stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's away record: 2W 3D 4L from 9 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 0.50 PPG, Cadiz 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Osasuna, 0 for Cadiz and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 3–2 with Osasuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 47% versus Cadiz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 37% | Cadiz 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.22 xG and Cadiz 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.815 / defence 1.524 | Cadiz attack 0.793 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.101. Cadiz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.372 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Osasuna games / 19 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 33% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 38%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Cadiz 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cadiz at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cadiz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 60% | Cadiz 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 33% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Osasuna 1.22 / Cadiz 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.815 / def 1.524 | Cadiz attack 0.793 / def 1.372 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Cadiz xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Cadiz kick off?
Osasuna vs Cadiz kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Osasuna 2 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Osasuna vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Cadiz part of?
Osasuna vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 33% chance of winning, Cadiz a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Osasuna and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Cadiz?
Record (1 meetings): Osasuna 1W | Draws 0 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Cadiz in?
Osasuna (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.81) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
33%
3.08
30%
3.38
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.55
1.33
Cadiz xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
9%
11.63
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.33 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 7D 7L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 0.74 PPG from 19 outings (2W 8D 9L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Cadiz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Osasuna's home form reads 1W 4D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 1.00 points per game from 9 outings (2W 3D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.79 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 19 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 games (1.16 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 2W 8D 9L in their last 19 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Cadiz away?
Cadiz's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 0.78 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cadiz in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Cadiz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Osasuna
1
Draws
0
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 5, Cadiz have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Osasuna 2-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Cadiz?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 67%, Cadiz 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Osasuna) and 56% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Cadiz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Osasuna's games and 56% of Cadiz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Osasuna's recent games and 56% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Cadiz tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Cadiz 2-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 20, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.22 xG and Cadiz 1.33 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cadiz landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.81 / defence 1.52 against Cadiz attack 0.79 / defence 1.37, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 33% | Draw 30% | Cadiz 38%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 37%, Cadiz 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cadiz's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.74. Form held, and they took the win. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.