Osasuna 1-2 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 44%, yet in-form Atletico Madrid provide a compelling counter-argument — this Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 36 as Osasuna welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 12 May 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 5W 4D 1L at Estadio El Sadar — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Madrid — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Atletico Madrid have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Atletico Madrid's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Osasuna's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Atletico Madrid, who boast 7 victories compared to 2 for Osasuna.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Atletico Madrid winning.
It is worth noting that Atletico Madrid have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Atletico Madrid trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 59% versus Atletico Madrid 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 47% | Atletico Madrid 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.54 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.030 / defence 1.018 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.068 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.165. Data: 73 Osasuna games / 73 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 44% | Draw 25% | Atletico Madrid 31%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Atletico Madrid 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico Madrid (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 80% | Atletico Madrid 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 44% | Draw 25% | Atletico Madrid 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Osasuna 1.54 / Atletico Madrid 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.030 / def 1.018 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.068 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Atletico Madrid xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 20:30 on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Osasuna 1 - 2 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 44% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Osasuna and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
Record (9 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 0 | Atletico Madrid 7W.
What form are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 1.03x the league average against Atletico Madrid's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
44%
2.29
25%
4.00
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.80
1.27
Atletico Madrid xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.27 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna come into this having played 73 games, going 23W 25D 25L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Atletico Madrid sit at 1.90 PPG from 73 outings (41W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Osasuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Osasuna's home form reads 19W 11D 6L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atletico Madrid have taken 1.39 points per game from 36 outings (13W 11D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Madrid's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.73 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Current Season
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 23W 25D 25L in their last 73 games (1.29 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 41W 16D 16L in their last 73 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Osasuna's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.89 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2022, when Atletico Madrid won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Osasuna
0
Draws
8
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Atletico Madrid have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Osasuna 1-2 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Atletico Madrid see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 72%, Atletico Madrid 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Osasuna) and 39% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Atletico Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Osasuna's games and 47% of Atletico Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Osasuna's recent games and 39% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atletico Madrid defy the odds to beat Osasuna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Osasuna 1-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.54 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.27 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 44% | Draw 25% | Atletico Madrid 31%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Atletico Madrid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 47%, Atletico Madrid 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.