Mallorca 1-0 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mallorca at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Valladolid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mallorca and Valladolid meet at Visit Mallorca Estadi in La Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 4W 2D 4L at Visit Mallorca Estadi — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valladolid (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 5L across 7 road games this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Mallorca against 1.30 for Valladolid. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Valladolid half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 40% versus Valladolid 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 20% | Valladolid 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.46 xG and Valladolid 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.821 / defence 0.918 | Valladolid attack 0.751 / defence 1.343. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.067. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.343 — this is suppressing Mallorca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Mallorca games / 15 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 54% | Draw 27% | Valladolid 18%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Valladolid 5.56. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 60% | Valladolid 43%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 54% | Draw 27% | Valladolid 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG Mallorca 1.46 / Valladolid 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.821 / def 0.918 | Valladolid attack 0.751 / def 1.343 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Valladolid xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Valladolid kick off?
Mallorca vs Valladolid kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 January 2023 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Valladolid?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Valladolid.
Where is Mallorca vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Valladolid part of?
Mallorca vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 54% chance of winning, Valladolid a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Mallorca and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Valladolid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mallorca and Valladolid in?
Mallorca (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Valladolid (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Valladolid's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Valladolid's attack (0.75x) against Mallorca's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.64
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.20
0.74
Valladolid xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
4%
23.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.74 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Valladolid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 15 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 5W 4D 6L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valladolid's form line: 5W 2D 8L from 15 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Mallorca against 1.13 for Valladolid. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
On the road, Valladolid have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valladolid's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.87 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 15 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 5W 2D 8L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Valladolid away?
Mallorca's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.14 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Valladolid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Valladolid in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Mallorca have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valladolid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Mallorca
1
Draws
0
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Valladolid?
From 4 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Valladolid have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Mallorca 2-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Valladolid?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 43%, Valladolid 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Mallorca) and 57% (Valladolid).
On the defensive side: Mallorca have failed to score in 29% of games; Valladolid in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Mallorca's recent matches and 43% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Mallorca's recent games and 57% of Valladolid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Valladolid tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Valladolid 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Valladolid 1-0 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.46 xG and Valladolid 0.74 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Valladolid attack 0.75 / defence 1.34, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 54% | Draw 27% | Valladolid 18%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 20%, Valladolid 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valladolid's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.27 PPG, Valladolid 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.