Mallorca 1-2 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Girona travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 January 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mallorca — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Girona have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mallorca 1.30 PPG, Girona 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Mallorca, 3 for Girona and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Girona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Girona in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 54% versus Girona 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 44% | Girona 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.60 xG and Girona 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.029 / defence 1.032 | Girona attack 0.916 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.109. Data: 55 Mallorca games / 55 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 49% | Draw 27% | Girona 24%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Girona 4.17. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 70% | Girona 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 49% | Draw 27% | Girona 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Mallorca 1.60 / Girona 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 1.029 / def 1.032 | Girona attack 0.916 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Girona xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Girona kick off?
Mallorca vs Girona kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 4 January 2026 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Girona?
Mallorca 1 - 2 Girona.
Where is Mallorca vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Girona part of?
Mallorca vs Girona is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 49% chance of winning, Girona a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Mallorca and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Girona?
Record (6 meetings): Mallorca 2W | Draws 1 | Girona 3W.
What form are Mallorca and Girona in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Girona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mallorca's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.70
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.65
1.05
Girona xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
5%
20.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.05 for Girona, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca's recent record stands at 17W 15D 23L from 55 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 27L across 55 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.20 PPG, Girona on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 10W 10D 7L from 27 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Girona's away record stands at 5W 8D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.07 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 55 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Girona in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 17W 15D 23L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while Girona have gone 14W 14D 27L in their last 55 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Girona away?
Mallorca's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.48 PPG; Girona away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Girona runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mallorca's record when hosting Girona specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mallorca
1
Draws
4
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Girona have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Girona 0-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 63%, Girona 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Mallorca) and 48% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Girona in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Mallorca's games and 59% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mallorca vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Mallorca's recent games and 48% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Girona tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Girona in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Mallorca 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Mallorca 1-2 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.60 xG and Girona 1.05 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Girona outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Girona attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 49% | Draw 27% | Girona 24%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Girona win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 44%, Girona 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.20 PPG, Girona 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Girona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.