Mallorca 0-1 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mallorca face Atletico Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Atletico Madrid in La Liga (matchday 34). Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Mallorca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Madrid (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Mallorca, 2 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Mallorca 0–1 Atletico Madrid — a Atletico Madrid win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mallorca — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Atletico Madrid — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 41% versus Atletico Madrid 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 30% | Atletico Madrid 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.13 xG and Atletico Madrid 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.770 / defence 0.856 | Atletico Madrid attack 0.965 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.084. Mallorca's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Data: built from Mallorca's last 71 games and Atletico Madrid's last 71.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 28%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.50 | Draw 3.13 | Atletico Madrid 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mallorca's last 10 home games and Atletico Madrid's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mallorca 40% (last 10 home games) | Atletico Madrid 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, matchday 34 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Mallorca 1.13 / Atletico Madrid 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.770 / def 0.856 | Atletico Madrid attack 0.965 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Atletico Madrid xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid FAQs
What time does Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Mallorca 0 - 1 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid is a La Liga fixture (matchday 34) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 40% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Mallorca and Atletico Madrid will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mallorca's attack at 0.77x the league average against Atletico Madrid's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Madrid's attack (0.96x) against Mallorca's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from Mallorca's last 71 games and Atletico Madrid's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
40%
2.50
32%
3.13
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.02
0.90
Atletico Madrid xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
9%
11.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.90 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 71 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 20W 22D 29L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Atletico Madrid's form line: 43W 12D 16L from 71 games, 1.99 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Atletico Madrid are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mallorca.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.63 PPG from their last 35 home games (15W 12D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 15W 8D 12L from their last 35 away games — 1.51 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.99 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Madrid's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.86 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Mallorca (Home) vs Atletico Madrid (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mallorca
Current Season
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
❓ Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid Form FAQs
What form are Mallorca and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 20W 22D 29L in their last 71 games (1.15 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 43W 12D 16L in their last 71 (1.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Mallorca's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.63 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Mallorca and Atletico Madrid, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 25 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won Atletico Madrid 3-0 Mallorca on 25 Jan 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atletico Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mallorca
1
Draws
6
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Atletico Madrid?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mallorca have won 3, Atletico Madrid have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2026: Atletico Madrid 3-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 40%, Atletico Madrid 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Mallorca and 40% for Atletico Madrid.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Atletico Madrid in 34%; Mallorca have failed to score in 29% of games; Atletico Madrid in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mallorca and Atletico Madrid matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Mallorca's recent matches and 40% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mallorca and Atletico Madrid matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Mallorca's recent games and 40% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Atletico Madrid matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 51% of Mallorca's recent matches and 69% of Atletico Madrid's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atletico Madrid defy the odds to beat Mallorca 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Mallorca 0-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.13 xG and Atletico Madrid 0.90 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.77 / defence 0.86 against Atletico Madrid attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 40% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 28%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Atletico Madrid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 30%, Atletico Madrid 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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