Levante 3-4 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valencia at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levante vs Valencia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Levante host Valencia at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 20 December 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Levante — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Levante have posted 0W 6D 2L at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all La Liga games this season, Valencia have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia away from home this season: 2W 3D 3L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Valencia are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Levante in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Valencia in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Levante 53% and Valencia 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 47% | Valencia 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 0.95 xG and Valencia 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.683 / defence 1.216 | Valencia attack 0.853 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.116. Levante's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Valencia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Levante games / 17 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 29% | Draw 32% | Valencia 39%. Fair-value odds: Levante 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Valencia 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levante 38% | Valencia 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Monday 20 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 29% | Draw 32% | Valencia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Levante 0.95 / Valencia 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.683 / def 1.216 | Valencia attack 0.853 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Valencia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Valencia xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Valencia kick off?
Levante vs Valencia kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 20 December 2021 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Valencia?
Levante 3 - 4 Valencia.
Where is Levante vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Valencia part of?
Levante vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 29% chance of winning, Valencia a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Levante and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Valencia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levante and Valencia in?
Levante (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Valencia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Levante's attack rating (0.68) and Valencia's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
29%
3.45
32%
3.16
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Levante xG
Total xG
2.11
1.16
Valencia xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.0 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Levante and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Levante and 1.16 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Levante come into this having played 17 games, going 0W 8D 9L for 0.47 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (6W 7D 4L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valencia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Levante — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Levante's home form reads 0W 6D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 1.12 points per game from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Levante are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.53 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia in 71%.
Last 17 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Valencia in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 0W 8D 9L in their last 17 games (0.47 PPG), while Valencia have gone 6W 7D 4L in their last 17 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Valencia away?
Valencia's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.75 PPG; Valencia away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Levante and Valencia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valencia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Levante's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Levante
1
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Valencia?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 0, Valencia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Levante 0-2 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Valencia?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Levante see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 38%, Valencia 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Levante) and 62% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Levante keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Levante have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Levante's games and 75% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levante vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Levante's recent games and 62% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Valencia tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Valencia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Levante 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Levante 3-4 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 0.95 xG and Valencia 1.16 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Valencia outscored their 1.16 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.68 / defence 1.22 against Valencia attack 0.85 / defence 1.30, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 29% | Draw 32% | Valencia 39%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 47%, Valencia 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Valencia's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Levante (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.