Las Palmas 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Las Palmas face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Osasuna travel to Estadio de Gran Canaria to take on Las Palmas in La Liga (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Las Palmas have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Las Palmas have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Las Palmas are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Osasuna stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Osasuna's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Las Palmas 1.40 PPG, Osasuna 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Las Palmas, 0 for Osasuna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Las Palmas 1–1 Osasuna — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Las Palmas trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Osasuna trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 40% versus Osasuna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 32% | Osasuna 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.39 xG and Osasuna 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.976 / defence 0.875 | Osasuna attack 0.913 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.146. Data: built from Las Palmas's last 25 games and Osasuna's last 63.
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 45% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 22%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.22 | Draw 3.02 | Osasuna 4.59. Las Palmas hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Las Palmas at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Las Palmas offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Las Palmas 50% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 26 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 45% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Las Palmas 1.39 / Osasuna 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.976 / def 0.875 | Osasuna attack 0.913 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Osasuna xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Las Palmas vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Las Palmas vs Osasuna kick off?
Las Palmas vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Osasuna?
Las Palmas 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Las Palmas vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Osasuna part of?
Las Palmas vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 26) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 45% chance of winning, Osasuna a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Las Palmas and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Las Palmas vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Las Palmas's attack at 0.98x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Las Palmas's last 25 games and Osasuna's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
45%
2.22
33%
3.02
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.31
0.92
Osasuna xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
5%
18.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Las Palmas vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Las Palmas and 0.92 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Las Palmas's recent record stands at 10W 5D 10L from 25 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 11L across 25 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Las Palmas on 1.40 PPG, Osasuna on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Las Palmas have managed 6W 3D 3L from their last 12 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 4W 2D 6L across their last 12 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Las Palmas come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Las Palmas are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.16 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
Las Palmas (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Las Palmas
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Las Palmas vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Las Palmas and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 10W 5D 10L in their last 25 games (1.40 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 9W 5D 11L in their last 25 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Osasuna away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.75 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Las Palmas or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Las Palmas have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Osasuna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 24 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Las Palmas's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Las Palmas
3
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Las Palmas vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Osasuna?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Las Palmas have won 0, Osasuna have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2025: Las Palmas 1-1 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 50%, Osasuna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Las Palmas) and 50% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Las Palmas vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Las Palmas and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 58% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Las Palmas and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Las Palmas's recent games and 50% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 42% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 75% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Las Palmas and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 26, as Las Palmas and Osasuna drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.39 xG and Osasuna 0.92 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Osasuna attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 45% | Draw 33% | Osasuna 22%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 32%, Osasuna 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.40 PPG, Osasuna 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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