Granada CF 1-1 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Las Palmas at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Las Palmas encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Las Palmas travel to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to take on Granada CF in La Liga (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Granada CF — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Granada CF have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Granada CF are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Las Palmas stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Las Palmas's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Las Palmas are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Granada CF have won 0, Las Palmas 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Granada CF 0–1 Las Palmas — a Las Palmas win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Granada CF in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Las Palmas in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 50% versus Las Palmas 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Granada CF 41% | Las Palmas 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 0.87 xG and Las Palmas 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.800 / defence 1.262 | Las Palmas attack 0.791 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.157. Las Palmas bring a tight defence (rating 0.796, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Granada CF's projected output down. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Las Palmas's projected output up. Data: built from Granada CF's last 22 games and Las Palmas's last 22.
Result probabilities: Granada CF 26% | Draw 33% | Las Palmas 41%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.79 | Draw 3.07 | Las Palmas 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Las Palmas at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Las Palmas offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Granada CF 70% (last 10 home games) | Las Palmas 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 26% | Draw 33% | Las Palmas 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Granada CF 0.87 / Las Palmas 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.800 / def 1.262 | Las Palmas attack 0.791 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Las Palmas xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Granada CF vs Las Palmas FAQs
What time does Granada CF vs Las Palmas kick off?
Granada CF vs Las Palmas kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Las Palmas?
Granada CF 1 - 1 Las Palmas.
Where is Granada CF vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Las Palmas part of?
Granada CF vs Las Palmas is a La Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 26% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Granada CF and Las Palmas will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Granada CF vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Granada CF's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Las Palmas's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Las Palmas's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Granada CF's last 22 games and Las Palmas's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
26%
3.79
33%
3.07
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.03
1.16
Las Palmas xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 15.2 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Granada CF vs Las Palmas Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.16 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Granada CF have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 2W 5D 15L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Las Palmas's form line: 9W 4D 9L from 22 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Las Palmas are the form team by 0.91 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Granada CF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Granada CF have posted 0.91 PPG from their last 11 home games (2W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Granada CF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 4W 1D 6L from their last 11 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Granada CF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 1.00 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
Granada CF (Home) vs Las Palmas (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Granada CF
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
❓ Granada CF vs Las Palmas Form FAQs
What form are Granada CF and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 2W 5D 15L in their last 22 games (0.50 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 9W 4D 9L in their last 22 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Las Palmas away?
Las Palmas's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 0.91 PPG; Las Palmas away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Granada CF
1
Draws
1
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Granada CF vs Las Palmas H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Las Palmas?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Granada CF have won 0, Las Palmas have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Las Palmas last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2024: Granada CF 1-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Las Palmas?
Las Palmas have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Granada CF 64%, Las Palmas 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Granada CF and 18% for Las Palmas.
On the defensive side: Granada CF have failed to score in 27% of games; Las Palmas in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Granada CF vs Las Palmas Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Granada CF and Las Palmas matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Granada CF's recent matches and 27% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Granada CF and Las Palmas matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Granada CF's recent games and 18% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Las Palmas matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Granada CF's recent matches and 54% of Las Palmas's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Granada CF and Las Palmas share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Granada CF and Las Palmas finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 0.87 xG and Las Palmas 1.16 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.80 / defence 1.26 against Las Palmas attack 0.79 / defence 0.80, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 26% | Draw 33% | Las Palmas 41%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 41%, Las Palmas 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Las Palmas's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Las Palmas arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Granada CF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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