Granada CF 2-1 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Madrid at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Granada CF welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 3L across 8 games at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes this term (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atletico Madrid — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Atletico Madrid have posted 4W 2D 3L from 9 away outings — 1.56 PPG. Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Granada CF) versus 1.50 (Atletico Madrid). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 78% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Granada CF in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Atletico Madrid in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Granada CF 65% and Atletico Madrid 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 47% | Atletico Madrid 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.74 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 1.155 / defence 1.358 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.130 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.150. Atletico Madrid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.365 — this is suppressing Granada CF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Granada CF games / 17 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 37% | Draw 24% | Atletico Madrid 38%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Atletico Madrid 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.50 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 88% | Atletico Madrid 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 37% | Draw 24% | Atletico Madrid 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Granada CF 1.74 / Atletico Madrid 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 1.155 / def 1.358 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.130 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Atletico Madrid xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid?
Granada CF 2 - 1 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 37% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Granada CF and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Atletico Madrid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Granada CF and Atletico Madrid in?
Granada CF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Granada CF's attack rating (1.16) and Atletico Madrid's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
37%
2.69
24%
4.10
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Granada CF xG
Total xG
3.50
1.77
Atletico Madrid xG
2.69
37%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
6%
15.71
7%
14.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.77 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Granada CF's recent record stands at 4W 7D 6L from 17 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 4L across 17 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Madrid by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Granada CF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Granada CF have managed 3W 2D 3L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Madrid's away record stands at 3W 2D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Granada CF are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.65 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 4W 7D 6L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Granada CF's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 1.38 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Granada CF's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Granada CF
1
Draws
2
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Atletico Madrid?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 1, Atletico Madrid have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2024, when Granada CF 0-1 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Granada CF at 88%, Atletico Madrid at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Granada CF and 75% for Atletico Madrid. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Atletico Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Granada CF's games and 75% of Atletico Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Granada CF's matches and 75% of Atletico Madrid's.
Do Granada CF and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Granada CF defy the odds to beat Atletico Madrid 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Granada CF beat Atletico Madrid 2-1 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.74 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.77 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 1.16 / defence 1.36 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.13 / defence 1.36, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 37% | Draw 24% | Atletico Madrid 38%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Granada CF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 47%, Atletico Madrid 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Granada CF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.