Granada CF 2-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Alaves at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Alaves encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Granada CF host Alaves at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in La Liga (matchday 31). Kick-off is Sunday 14 April 2024 at 16:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Granada CF have gone 0W 3D 7L — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.

At home, Granada CF have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Alaves — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Alaves have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. Alaves's 1.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Granada CF's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Granada CF have won 2, Alaves 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2023, ended Granada CF 1–3 Alaves — a Alaves win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Granada CF in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

Alaves in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 53% versus Alaves 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Granada CF 40% | Alaves 27%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.02 xG and Alaves 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.785 / defence 1.326 | Alaves attack 0.755 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.079. Granada CF's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Alaves's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.326 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alaves's projected output up. Data: built from Granada CF's last 30 games and Alaves's last 30.

Result probabilities: Granada CF 33% | Draw 30% | Alaves 36%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.01 | Draw 3.28 | Alaves 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Granada CF 60% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights