Girona 3-5 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Sociedad at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Real Sociedad travel to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 October 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 2W 1D 3L from 6 La Liga matches — 1.17 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Girona have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Girona's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 games at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.17 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Real Sociedad — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Real Sociedad have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Real Sociedad away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Girona 1.17 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Girona register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Real Sociedad in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Girona in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Real Sociedad in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 67% and Real Sociedad 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 50% | Real Sociedad 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.11 xG and Real Sociedad 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.895 / defence 1.063 | Real Sociedad attack 0.897 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.207. Data: 6 Girona games / 44 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 35% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 37%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Real Sociedad 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Sociedad are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Girona 67% | Real Sociedad 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 35% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Girona 1.11 / Real Sociedad 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.895 / def 1.063 | Real Sociedad attack 0.897 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Real Sociedad xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Girona vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Girona 3 - 5 Real Sociedad.
Where is Girona vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Real Sociedad part of?
Girona vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 35% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Girona and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Real Sociedad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Girona and Real Sociedad in?
Girona (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Girona's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Real Sociedad's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Real Sociedad's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
35%
2.89
29%
3.49
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Girona xG
Total xG
2.26
1.15
Real Sociedad xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Girona and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Girona and 1.15 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona come into this having played 6 games, going 2W 1D 3L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Girona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Real Sociedad, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Girona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Girona's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Girona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Real Sociedad in 67%.
Last 6 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Early Season
Real Sociedad
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Real Sociedad away?
Girona's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.00 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Girona or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Girona and Real Sociedad runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 14 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Girona's record when hosting Real Sociedad specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Girona
4
Draws
3
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Real Sociedad?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 1, Real Sociedad have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Girona 1-1 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 67%, Real Sociedad 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Girona) and 33% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad in 67%; Girona have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Girona's recent matches and 33% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Girona's recent games and 33% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Girona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Girona 3-5 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.11 xG and Real Sociedad 1.15 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Real Sociedad outscored their 1.15 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against Real Sociedad attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 35% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 37%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 50%, Real Sociedad 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Girona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.