Girona 1-1 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Real Sociedad travel to Estadio Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona. The game is scheduled for Thursday 14 May 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Girona's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Real Sociedad — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Real Sociedad away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Girona 0.90 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Girona, 3 for Real Sociedad and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Girona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Girona in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Real Sociedad in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 56% versus Real Sociedad 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 52% | Real Sociedad 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.50 xG and Real Sociedad 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.870 / defence 1.061 | Real Sociedad attack 1.065 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.159. Data: 73 Girona games / 73 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 42% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 33%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Real Sociedad 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Girona are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Girona 50% | Real Sociedad 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Thursday 14 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 42% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Girona 1.50 / Real Sociedad 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.870 / def 1.061 | Real Sociedad attack 1.065 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Girona (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Real Sociedad xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Girona vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 14 May 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Girona 1 - 1 Real Sociedad.
Where is Girona vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Real Sociedad part of?
Girona vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 42% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Girona and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Real Sociedad?
Record (7 meetings): Girona 1W | Draws 3 | Real Sociedad 3W.
What form are Girona and Real Sociedad in?
Girona (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Real Sociedad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Girona's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Real Sociedad's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Real Sociedad's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
42%
2.40
25%
3.98
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Girona xG
Total xG
2.81
1.31
Real Sociedad xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
7%
13.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Girona and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Girona and 1.31 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona come into this having played 73 games, going 20W 20D 33L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 1.23 PPG from 73 outings (24W 18D 31L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 1.10 PPG, Real Sociedad on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Girona's home form reads 13W 7D 16L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 0.94 points per game from 36 outings (8W 10D 18L).
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.22 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 73 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Current Season
Real Sociedad
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 20W 20D 33L in their last 73 games (1.10 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 24W 18D 31L in their last 73 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Real Sociedad away?
Girona's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.28 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Girona and Real Sociedad runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Girona's record when hosting Real Sociedad specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Girona
4
Draws
3
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Real Sociedad?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 1, Real Sociedad have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Girona 1-1 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 50%, Real Sociedad 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Girona) and 44% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Girona have failed to score in 31% of games; Real Sociedad in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Real Sociedad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Girona's recent matches and 47% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Girona's recent games and 44% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona and Real Sociedad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona and Real Sociedad finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.50 xG and Real Sociedad 1.31 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Real Sociedad attack 1.06 / defence 1.13, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 42% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 33%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 52%, Real Sociedad 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.10 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.