Girona 2-1 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Girona at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Athletic Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Girona and Athletic Club meet at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Girona's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Girona are significantly better at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi than their overall form suggests.
Athletic Club (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Athletic Club have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Athletic Club are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Girona 2W, Athletic Club 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2024, ended 2–3 with Athletic Club winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Girona half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Athletic Club half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 52% versus Athletic Club 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 59% | Athletic Club 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.64 xG and Athletic Club 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.205 / defence 1.013 | Athletic Club attack 1.270 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.028. Athletic Club have an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Girona games / 46 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 42% | Draw 29% | Athletic Club 28%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Athletic Club 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Athletic Club (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Girona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Girona 40% | Athletic Club 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 42% | Draw 29% | Athletic Club 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Girona 1.64 / Athletic Club 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.205 / def 1.013 | Athletic Club attack 1.270 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Girona (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Athletic Club xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Athletic Club kick off?
Girona vs Athletic Club kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Athletic Club?
Girona 2 - 1 Athletic Club.
Where is Girona vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Athletic Club part of?
Girona vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 42% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Girona and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Athletic Club?
Record (4 meetings): Girona 2W | Draws 1 | Athletic Club 1W.
What form are Girona and Athletic Club in?
Girona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Athletic Club (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Girona's attack rating (1.21) and Athletic Club's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Athletic Club's attack (1.27x) against Girona's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
42%
2.36
29%
3.39
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Girona xG
Total xG
2.97
1.32
Athletic Club xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
5%
18.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Girona and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Girona and 1.32 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Girona come into this having played 46 games, going 27W 9D 10L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Athletic Club sit at 1.78 PPG from 46 outings (23W 13D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.96 PPG for Girona against 1.78 for Athletic Club. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Girona's home form reads 16W 3D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Athletic Club have taken 1.45 points per game from 22 outings (9W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Girona are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.59 scored and 0.98 conceded. Girona's scoring rate against Athletic Club's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Athletic Club in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 27W 9D 10L in their last 46 games (1.96 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 23W 13D 10L in their last 46 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Athletic Club away?
Girona's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.32 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Girona or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Athletic Club won 3-0 on 8 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Girona have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Athletic Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Girona
2
Draws
2
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Athletic Club?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 4, Athletic Club have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Girona 3-0 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Athletic Club?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 46%, Athletic Club 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Girona) and 32% (Athletic Club).
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Athletic Club in 46%; Athletic Club in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Athletic Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Girona's recent matches and 36% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Girona's recent games and 32% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Athletic Club 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Athletic Club 2-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.64 xG and Athletic Club 1.32 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.21 / defence 1.01 against Athletic Club attack 1.27 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 42% | Draw 29% | Athletic Club 28%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 59%, Athletic Club 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Athletic Club's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.96 PPG, Athletic Club 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Athletic Club (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.