Getafe 1-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Getafe vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Coliseum plays host to Getafe versus Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Monday 28 August 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Getafe (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Getafe have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estadio Coliseum, Getafe have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Coliseum. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Getafe are significantly better at Estadio Coliseum than their overall form suggests.
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Getafe, 1.50 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Getafe, 0 for Alaves and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.25 xG and Alaves 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.827 / defence 0.783 | Alaves attack 0.727 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.156. Getafe's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Getafe games / 2 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Getafe 50% | Draw 32% | Alaves 19%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Alaves 5.26. Getafe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Alaves's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Getafe if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Coliseum • Kick-off: Monday 28 Aug 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 50% | Draw 32% | Alaves 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Getafe 1.25 / Alaves 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.827 / def 0.783 | Alaves attack 0.727 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Getafe (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Alaves xG
35%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Getafe vs Alaves kick off?
Getafe vs Alaves kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 28 August 2023 at Estadio Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Alaves?
Getafe 1 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Getafe vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Alaves part of?
Getafe vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 50% chance of winning, Alaves a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Getafe and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Getafe vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Alaves?
Record (2 meetings): Getafe 0W | Draws 2 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Getafe and Alaves in?
Getafe (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Alaves (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Getafe's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Alaves's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.73x) against Getafe's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 40/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
50%
2.01
32%
3.17
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Getafe xG
Total xG
1.91
0.66
Alaves xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
5%
18.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.2 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Getafe and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Getafe and 0.66 for Alaves, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Getafe's recent record stands at 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Getafe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alaves, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Alaves by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Getafe heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Getafe are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Getafe have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Getafe and Alaves in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Alaves have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Getafe or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Getafe have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Alaves in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Getafe
3
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Alaves?
From 8 meetings on record, Getafe have won 4, Alaves have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Alaves 0-2 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Alaves?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Getafe play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Getafe's recent matches and 50% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Getafe vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Getafe's recent games and 50% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Alaves tend to score early?
Getafe have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Alaves in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Alaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Alaves 1-0 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.25 xG and Alaves 0.66 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.83 / defence 0.78 against Alaves attack 0.73 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 50% | Draw 32% | Alaves 19%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 50%, Alaves 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Alaves arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Getafe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Getafe scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.