Espanyol 1-0 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Espanyol at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Espanyol vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
RCDE Stadium plays host to Espanyol versus Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 10 April 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Espanyol's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at RCDE Stadium, Espanyol have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Espanyol are significantly better at RCDE Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Celta Vigo (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Celta Vigo's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Espanyol, 1.30 for Celta Vigo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Espanyol lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with Celta Vigo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Espanyol half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Celta Vigo half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 57% versus Celta Vigo 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 47% | Celta Vigo 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.11 xG and Celta Vigo 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 1.009 / defence 1.195 | Celta Vigo attack 0.718 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.059. Data: 30 Espanyol games / 30 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 40% | Draw 31% | Celta Vigo 29%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Celta Vigo 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Espanyol at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Espanyol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Espanyol 60% | Celta Vigo 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 40% | Draw 31% | Celta Vigo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Espanyol 1.11 / Celta Vigo 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 1.009 / def 1.195 | Celta Vigo attack 0.718 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Celta Vigo xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Espanyol vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Celta Vigo?
Espanyol 1 - 0 Celta Vigo.
Where is Espanyol vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Celta Vigo part of?
Espanyol vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 40% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Espanyol and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Celta Vigo?
Record (1 meetings): Espanyol 0W | Draws 0 | Celta Vigo 1W.
What form are Espanyol and Celta Vigo in?
Espanyol (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Espanyol's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (0.72x) against Espanyol's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.23
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.02
0.91
Celta Vigo xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Espanyol and 0.91 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Espanyol come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 9D 12L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Celta Vigo sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Espanyol against 1.20 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Espanyol's home form reads 8W 3D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Espanyol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Celta Vigo have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (4W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Espanyol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Espanyol are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.13 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Celta Vigo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Current Season
Celta Vigo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Celta Vigo away?
Espanyol's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 1.93 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Espanyol or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Espanyol have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Espanyol
2
Draws
2
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Celta Vigo?
From 8 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 4, Celta Vigo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Espanyol 2-2 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Espanyol and Celta Vigo?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Celta Vigo see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 57%, Celta Vigo 21% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Espanyol) and 29% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Espanyol keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Celta Vigo in 50%; Celta Vigo in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Espanyol's recent matches and 21% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Espanyol vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Espanyol's recent games and 29% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Espanyol edge out Celta Vigo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol beat Celta Vigo 1-0 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.11 xG and Celta Vigo 0.91 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Celta Vigo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 1.01 / defence 1.20 against Celta Vigo attack 0.72 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 40% | Draw 31% | Celta Vigo 29%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 47%, Celta Vigo 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.20 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Espanyol win broke the near-deadlock. Espanyol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.