Espanyol 0-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Espanyol vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to RCDE Stadium to face Espanyol in La Liga, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Friday 21 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Espanyol (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Espanyol have posted 3W 3D 4L at RCDE Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Espanyol are significantly better at RCDE Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cadiz away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Cadiz are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Espanyol 1W, Cadiz 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Espanyol half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Cadiz half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 64% versus Cadiz 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 52% | Cadiz 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.22 xG and Cadiz 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.992 / defence 1.365 | Cadiz attack 0.880 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.052. Data: 67 Espanyol games / 67 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 35% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 38%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Cadiz 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cadiz are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Espanyol 70% | Cadiz 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 35% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Espanyol 1.22 / Cadiz 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.992 / def 1.365 | Cadiz attack 0.880 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Cadiz xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Cadiz kick off?
Espanyol vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 21 April 2023 at RCDE Stadium.
What was the final score in Espanyol vs Cadiz?
Espanyol 0 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Espanyol vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Cadiz part of?
Espanyol vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 35% chance of winning, Cadiz a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Espanyol and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Cadiz?
Record (3 meetings): Espanyol 1W | Draws 2 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Espanyol and Cadiz in?
Espanyol (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Cadiz (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Espanyol's attack at 0.99x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.88x) against Espanyol's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
35%
2.83
27%
3.69
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.48
1.26
Cadiz xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
10%
10.00
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Espanyol and 1.26 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Espanyol have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 16W 21D 30L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Cadiz's form line: 15W 25D 27L from 67 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Espanyol against 1.04 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Espanyol have posted 1.39 PPG from 33 outings (12W 10D 11L).
On the road, Cadiz have gone 8W 10D 15L from 33 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Espanyol are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.87 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Espanyol have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Current Season
Cadiz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 16W 21D 30L in their last 67 games (1.03 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 15W 25D 27L in their last 67 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Cadiz away?
Espanyol's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 1.39 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Espanyol or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Espanyol have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Cadiz in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Espanyol have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Espanyol
3
Draws
0
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Cadiz?
From 4 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 1, Cadiz have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2023, when Espanyol 0-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Espanyol and Cadiz?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 61%, Cadiz 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Espanyol) and 36% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Espanyol keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Cadiz in 36%; Cadiz in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Espanyol's recent matches and 39% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Espanyol vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Espanyol's recent games and 36% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Cadiz tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Espanyol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Espanyol and Cadiz finished level at 0-0 at RCDE Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Espanyol 1.22 xG and Cadiz 1.26 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Espanyol fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Cadiz landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Espanyol attack 0.99 / defence 1.36 against Cadiz attack 0.88 / defence 0.93, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Espanyol 35% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 38%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Espanyol 52%, Cadiz 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Espanyol's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Cadiz's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Espanyol 1.03 PPG, Cadiz 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Espanyol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.