Elche 3-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Elche at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Elche vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Cadiz travel to Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero to take on Elche. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Elche have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Elche have posted 1W 4D 2L at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cadiz — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's away record: 2W 2D 3L from 7 road trips in La Liga this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Elche) versus 0.70 (Cadiz). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Elche in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Elche 53% versus Cadiz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Elche 40% | Cadiz 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.31 xG and Cadiz 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.833 / defence 1.303 | Cadiz attack 0.838 / defence 1.557. League average goals — home 1.007 / away 1.154. Cadiz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.557 — this is suppressing Elche's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Elche games / 15 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 37% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 35%. Fair-value odds: Elche 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Cadiz 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Elche as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Elche offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Elche 57% | Cadiz 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 37% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Elche 1.31 / Cadiz 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.833 / def 1.303 | Cadiz attack 0.838 / def 1.557 | league avg home 1.007 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Elche (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Elche xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Cadiz xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Cadiz kick off?
Elche vs Cadiz kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Cadiz?
Elche 3 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Elche vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Cadiz part of?
Elche vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 37% chance of winning, Cadiz a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Elche and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Cadiz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Elche and Cadiz in?
Elche (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Elche's attack rating (0.83) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Elche's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
37%
2.67
27%
3.66
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Elche xG
Total xG
2.57
1.26
Cadiz xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Elche and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Elche and 1.26 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Elche's recent record stands at 2W 6D 7L from 15 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 7L across 15 games — 0.80 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Elche on 0.80 PPG, Cadiz on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Elche have managed 1W 4D 2L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cadiz's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Elche are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.87 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 15 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 2W 6D 7L in their last 15 games (0.80 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 2W 6D 7L in their last 15 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Cadiz away?
Cadiz's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 1.00 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Cadiz won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Elche's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Elche
2
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Cadiz?
From 4 meetings on record, Elche have won 1, Cadiz have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when Elche 1-1 Cadiz.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 57%, Cadiz 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Elche) and 57% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Elche have failed to score in 29% of games; Cadiz in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Cadiz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Elche's games and 57% of Cadiz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Elche vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Elche's recent games and 57% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Cadiz tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Elche cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche beat Cadiz 3-1 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.31 xG and Cadiz 1.26 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Elche beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.83 / defence 1.30 against Cadiz attack 0.84 / defence 1.56, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 37% | Draw 27% | Cadiz 35%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 40%, Cadiz 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Cadiz's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Elche 0.80 PPG, Cadiz 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Elche win broke the near-deadlock. Elche (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm. Cadiz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.