Elche 0-0 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Elche take on Athletic Club.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Elche and Athletic Club meet at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in La Liga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Monday 16 August 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 0.91 xG and Athletic Club 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Athletic Club attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.933 / away 1.103. Data: 0 Elche games / 0 Athletic Club games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Elche 26% | Draw 39% | Athletic Club 35%. Fair-value odds: Elche 3.85 | Draw 2.56 | Athletic Club 2.86. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Monday 16 Aug 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 26% | Draw 39% | Athletic Club 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 44% | xG Elche 0.91 / Athletic Club 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Athletic Club attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.933 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Elche xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Athletic Club xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Athletic Club kick off?
Elche vs Athletic Club kicked off at 21:00 on Monday 16 August 2021 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Athletic Club?
Elche 0 - 0 Athletic Club.
Where is Elche vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Athletic Club part of?
Elche vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 26% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 35% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Elche and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Athletic Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Elche and Athletic Club in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Elche's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Athletic Club's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Athletic Club's attack (0.85x) against Elche's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
The sample (0/0 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.82
39%
2.57
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Elche xG
Total xG
1.99
1.08
Athletic Club xG
3.82
26%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 14.7 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Elche and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Elche and 1.08 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Pre-Season
Athletic Club
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Athletic Club won 1-4 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Elche have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Athletic Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Elche
2
Draws
3
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Athletic Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Elche have won 1, Athletic Club have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Athletic Club 2-1 Elche.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Elche's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 1, as Elche and Athletic Club drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 0.91 xG and Athletic Club 1.08 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Elche fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Athletic Club landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Athletic Club attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Elche 26% | Draw 39% | Athletic Club 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.