Celta Vigo 1-0 Elche – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Elche fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Elche travel to Abanca-Balaídos to take on Celta Vigo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Abanca-Balaídos, Celta Vigo have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Celta Vigo are significantly better at Abanca-Balaídos than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Elche have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Elche have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Celta Vigo 1.10 PPG, Elche 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Celta Vigo have won 0, Elche 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Elche winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Celta Vigo in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Elche in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 39% versus Elche 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 36% | Elche 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.59 xG and Elche 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.077 / defence 1.191 | Elche attack 0.700 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.132. Elche bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Celta Vigo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Celta Vigo games / 36 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 51% | Draw 27% | Elche 21%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Elche 4.76. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Celta Vigo 50% | Elche 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 51% | Draw 27% | Elche 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Celta Vigo 1.59 / Elche 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.077 / def 1.191 | Elche attack 0.700 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Elche xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Elche kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Elche kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Elche?
Celta Vigo 1 - 0 Elche.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Elche part of?
Celta Vigo vs Elche is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 51% chance of winning, Elche a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Celta Vigo and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Elche?
Record (1 meetings): Celta Vigo 0W | Draws 0 | Elche 1W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Elche in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Elche (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 1.08x the league average against Elche's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Elche's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
51%
1.94
27%
3.67
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.53
0.94
Elche xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
4%
23.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.94 for Elche, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Elche?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Celta Vigo have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 11W 10D 15L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Elche's form line: 10W 9D 17L from 36 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.19 PPG, Elche on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Celta Vigo have posted 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
On the road, Elche have gone 4W 3D 11L from 18 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 1.03 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Current Season
Elche
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Elche in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 11W 10D 15L in their last 36 games (1.19 PPG), while Elche have gone 10W 9D 17L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Elche away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.22 PPG; Elche away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Elche been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Elche in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Elche specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
0
Draws
2
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Elche?
From 6 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Elche have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Celta Vigo 3-1 Elche.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Elche?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 50%, Elche 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Celta Vigo) and 56% (Elche).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo have failed to score in 28% of games; Elche in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Elche?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 50% of Elche's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 56% of Elche's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Elche tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Elche in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Elche 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Elche 1-0 at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.59 xG and Elche 0.94 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Elche landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.08 / defence 1.19 against Elche attack 0.70 / defence 1.35, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 51% | Draw 27% | Elche 21%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 36%, Elche 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Elche's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.19 PPG, Elche 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Elche (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.