Cadiz 1-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Granada CF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Granada CF travel to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla to take on Cadiz. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cadiz stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cadiz have posted 1W 5D 4L at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Granada CF's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cadiz 0.70 PPG, Granada CF 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cadiz, 1 for Granada CF and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2024, ended 0–2 with Granada CF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cadiz trading profile (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Granada CF trading profile (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 43% versus Granada CF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 25% | Granada CF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.68 xG and Granada CF 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.814 / defence 1.086 | Granada CF attack 0.759 / defence 1.456. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.102. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.456 — this is suppressing Cadiz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Cadiz games / 28 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 55% | Draw 26% | Granada CF 19%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Granada CF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Cadiz (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cadiz as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 40% | Granada CF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 55% | Draw 26% | Granada CF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Cadiz 1.68 / Granada CF 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.814 / def 1.086 | Granada CF attack 0.759 / def 1.456 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Granada CF xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Granada CF kick off?
Cadiz vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Granada CF?
Cadiz 1 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Cadiz vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Granada CF part of?
Cadiz vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 55% chance of winning, Granada CF a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cadiz and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Granada CF?
Record (3 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 2 | Granada CF 1W.
What form are Cadiz and Granada CF in?
Cadiz (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Granada CF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.82
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.59
0.91
Granada CF xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
4%
28.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Cadiz and 0.91 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Granada CF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cadiz come into this having played 28 games, going 2W 13D 13L for 0.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Granada CF sit at 0.50 PPG from 28 outings (2W 8D 18L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cadiz on 0.68 PPG, Granada CF on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cadiz's home form reads 2W 7D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Granada CF have taken 0.15 points per game from 13 outings (0W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.07 scored and 2.07 conceded.
Last 28 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Current Season
Granada CF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 2W 13D 13L in their last 28 games (0.68 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 2W 8D 18L in their last 28 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Granada CF away?
Cadiz's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.00 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cadiz's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cadiz
2
Draws
1
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Granada CF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when Cadiz 1-0 Granada CF.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 46%, Granada CF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cadiz) and 38% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 46% of games; Granada CF in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cadiz's recent matches and 38% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cadiz's recent games and 38% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Granada CF tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cadiz edge out Granada CF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Granada CF 1-0 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.68 xG and Granada CF 0.91 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Granada CF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.81 / defence 1.09 against Granada CF attack 0.76 / defence 1.46, drawn from 67/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 55% | Draw 26% | Granada CF 19%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 25%, Granada CF 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Granada CF's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 0.68 PPG, Granada CF 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cadiz win broke the near-deadlock. Cadiz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.