Cadiz 2-2 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Espanyol at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Espanyol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Espanyol make the trip to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla to face Cadiz in La Liga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 October 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Cadiz (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Cadiz have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Espanyol's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Espanyol have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Espanyol have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Cadiz, 0.70 for Espanyol — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Cadiz 0W, Espanyol 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cadiz half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Espanyol half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 40% versus Espanyol 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 38% | Espanyol 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.92 xG and Espanyol 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.665 / defence 1.170 | Espanyol attack 0.968 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.225. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.665 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Cadiz games / 45 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 25% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 48%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Espanyol 2.08. Espanyol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Espanyol are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Espanyol if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 30% | Espanyol 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 25% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Cadiz 0.92 / Espanyol 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.665 / def 1.170 | Espanyol attack 0.968 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Espanyol xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Espanyol kick off?
Cadiz vs Espanyol kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Espanyol?
Cadiz 2 - 2 Espanyol.
Where is Cadiz vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Espanyol part of?
Cadiz vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 25% chance of winning, Espanyol a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cadiz and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Espanyol?
Record (2 meetings): Cadiz 0W | Draws 1 | Espanyol 1W.
What form are Cadiz and Espanyol in?
Cadiz (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Espanyol (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cadiz's attack rating (0.67) and Espanyol's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Espanyol's attack (0.97x) against Cadiz's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
25%
4.03
27%
3.66
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.30
1.39
Espanyol xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
6%
16.16
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.9 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.39 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cadiz come into this having played 45 games, going 9W 16D 20L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Espanyol sit at 1.04 PPG from 45 outings (11W 14D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Espanyol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Cadiz against 1.04 for Espanyol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cadiz's home form reads 3W 9D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Espanyol have taken 0.59 points per game from 22 outings (2W 7D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Espanyol's season.
Attack vs Defence
Cadiz are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.09 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 45 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Early Season
Espanyol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 9W 16D 20L in their last 45 games (0.96 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 11W 14D 20L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Espanyol away?
Cadiz's home record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.82 PPG; Espanyol away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Espanyol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Espanyol in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cadiz have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Espanyol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cadiz
3
Draws
1
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Espanyol?
From 4 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 0, Espanyol have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2023, when Espanyol 0-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Espanyol?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Espanyol see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 41%, Espanyol 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cadiz) and 59% (Espanyol).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 46% of games; Espanyol in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Espanyol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cadiz's recent matches and 59% of Espanyol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cadiz's recent games and 59% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Cadiz and Espanyol share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 8, as Cadiz and Espanyol drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.92 xG and Espanyol 1.39 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cadiz beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.67 / defence 1.17 against Espanyol attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 25% | Draw 27% | Espanyol 48%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 38%, Espanyol 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Espanyol's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 0.96 PPG, Espanyol 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm. Espanyol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.