Atletico Madrid 1-2 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Wanda Metropolitano plays host to Atletico Madrid versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 4 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atletico Madrid have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Madrid at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano this season: 4W 3D 0L from 7 home games — 2.14 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 7 home games (71%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mallorca (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's away record: 1W 2D 4L from 7 road trips in La Liga this season (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Atletico Madrid's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Atletico Madrid — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Mallorca — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 57% versus Mallorca 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 64% | Mallorca 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 1.95 xG and Mallorca 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.182 / defence 0.880 | Mallorca attack 0.795 / defence 1.605. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.141. Mallorca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.605 — this is suppressing Atletico Madrid's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Atletico Madrid games / 15 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 64% | Draw 22% | Mallorca 14%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Mallorca 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Madrid (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Madrid 29% | Mallorca 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Wanda Metropolitano • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 64% | Draw 22% | Mallorca 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Atletico Madrid 1.95 / Mallorca 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.182 / def 0.880 | Mallorca attack 0.795 / def 1.605 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Mallorca xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Atletico Madrid 1 - 2 Mallorca.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 64% chance of winning, Mallorca a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Mallorca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Madrid and Mallorca in?
Atletico Madrid (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Mallorca (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atletico Madrid's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.60x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.80x) against Atletico Madrid's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
64%
1.56
22%
4.55
14%
7.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
2.75
0.80
Mallorca xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
7.10
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
14%
7.02
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
2%
49.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.80 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atletico Madrid's recent record stands at 8W 5D 1L from 14 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 5L across 14 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Madrid by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atletico Madrid have managed 4W 3D 0L from 7 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mallorca's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.93 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Mallorca in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Madrid and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 8W 5D 1L in their last 14 games (2.07 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 3W 6D 5L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Mallorca away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.14 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Atletico Madrid or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Mallorca in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won 3-0 on 25 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Madrid have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atletico Madrid
1
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Atletico Madrid have won 6, Mallorca have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Atletico Madrid 3-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Mallorca?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atletico Madrid see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 29%, Mallorca 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Atletico Madrid) and 43% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Atletico Madrid keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Mallorca in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Madrid play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Atletico Madrid's recent matches and 57% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Atletico Madrid's recent games and 43% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Mallorca defy the odds to beat Atletico Madrid 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Atletico Madrid 1-2 at Estadio Wanda Metropolitano, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 1.95 xG and Mallorca 0.80 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Atletico Madrid fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Mallorca outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.18 / defence 0.88 against Mallorca attack 0.80 / defence 1.60, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 64% | Draw 22% | Mallorca 14%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Mallorca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 64%, Mallorca 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Mallorca's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Mallorca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.