Alaves 1-0 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Villarreal at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alaves stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alaves have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio Mendizorrotza — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Villarreal have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Villarreal have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Villarreal's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alaves 1.50 PPG, Villarreal 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Alaves have won 2, Villarreal 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Alaves in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alaves 62% and Villarreal 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 50% | Villarreal 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.83 xG and Villarreal 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 1.146 / defence 0.978 | Villarreal attack 1.155 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.108. Data: 40 Alaves games / 40 Villarreal games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Alaves 50% | Draw 24% | Villarreal 26%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Villarreal 3.85. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 70% | Villarreal 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Friday 28 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 50% | Draw 24% | Villarreal 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Alaves 1.83 / Villarreal 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 1.146 / def 0.978 | Villarreal attack 1.155 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Alaves (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Villarreal xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Villarreal kick off?
Alaves vs Villarreal kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 28 August 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Alaves 1 - 0 Villarreal.
Where is Alaves vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Villarreal part of?
Alaves vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 50% chance of winning, Villarreal a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Alaves and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Villarreal?
Record (8 meetings): Alaves 2W | Draws 3 | Villarreal 3W.
What form are Alaves and Villarreal in?
Alaves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Villarreal (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alaves's attack rating (1.15) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
50%
1.98
24%
4.21
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Alaves xG
Total xG
3.08
1.25
Villarreal xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
4%
24.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Alaves and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Alaves and 1.25 for Villarreal, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 11D 17L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Villarreal's form line: 22W 8D 10L from 40 games, 1.85 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Villarreal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Villarreal are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alaves.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
On the road, Villarreal have gone 7W 6D 7L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Villarreal's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Alaves are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.90 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Villarreal in 65%.
Last 40 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Villarreal
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 12W 11D 17L in their last 40 games (1.18 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 22W 8D 10L in their last 40 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Villarreal away?
Alaves's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.50 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2021, when Villarreal won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Alaves
3
Draws
3
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Villarreal?
From 9 meetings on record, Alaves have won 3, Villarreal have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Alaves 1-0 Villarreal.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Alaves at 70%, Villarreal at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Alaves) and 50% (Villarreal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Villarreal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Alaves's games and 65% of Villarreal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alaves vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Alaves's matches and 50% of Villarreal's.
Do Alaves and Villarreal tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Villarreal 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Villarreal 1-0 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.83 xG and Villarreal 1.25 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Villarreal landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Villarreal attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 50% | Draw 24% | Villarreal 26%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 50%, Villarreal 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Villarreal's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Alaves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Villarreal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.