Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Real Madrid at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Real Madrid encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Alaves welcome Real Madrid to Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Thursday 21 December 2023 at 20:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Alaves — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Alaves have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 home games (1.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alaves are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Real Madrid stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Real Madrid's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Real Madrid's 2.40 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Alaves's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Alaves have won 0, Real Madrid 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Feb 2022, ended Alaves 0–3 Real Madrid — a Real Madrid win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Alaves trading profile (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Real Madrid trading profile (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 41% versus Real Madrid 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 29% | Real Madrid 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.83 xG and Real Madrid 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.802 / defence 1.165 | Real Madrid attack 1.337 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.109. Real Madrid bring a tight defence (rating 0.748, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Alaves's projected output down. Real Madrid have an above-average attack rating of 1.337, which lifts their away xG to 1.73. Data: built from Alaves's last 17 games and Real Madrid's last 55.

Result probabilities: Alaves 15% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 56%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 6.49 | Draw 3.53 | Real Madrid 1.78. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (56%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alaves 38% (last 8 home games) | Real Madrid 60% (last 10 away games).

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